What Have You Learned? Omar Minaya

What Have You Learned is our very special off-season series that will outline what you've learned, what I've learned, and hopefully what the 2009 Mets have learned about themselves, others, and 2010. Today, we look at everyone's least favorite person with everyone's favorite job: Omar Minaya.

Remember how easy it used to be to get a t-shirt that said "In Omar We Trust"? Now they're about as readily available as those Patriots 19-0 gold coins ... and worth about as much.

It's gotta be tough to be Minaya these days. He's the very definition of lame duck ... between his people getting fired around him, hiring new people who could possibly replace him (and I wonder whether Minaya was "encouraged" to do this), and having reports pop up that the only reason you have your job is because of the extension you signed, I'd say that would make a man feel quite inadequate. Good thing he's in the sports business, where there's no shortage of advice for that kind of thing.

What has Omar Minaya learned? Hopefully, how to choose his battles more wisely.

What must he learn for 2010? Unfortunately, he's going to have to learn how to be somebody he's not. Look, I think Minaya is a good GM ... but not for what this franchise needs. His strengths, being able to sign the big fish being paramount among them, was something the Mets desperately needed after the 2004 season when they badly needed an infusion of star power. The Mets don't need that now. They have enough stars. They need a GM who knows how to construct a roster 1-25. Minaya has proven that's not a strength for him. most egregiously with the Darren O'Day debacle (yeah, that still bothers me). But if he's going to keep his job past this season, he's going to have to make it a strength.

Is that fair? Absolutely not. I'm not a fan of putting people in a position to fail. When you start firing people to "send messages", you get away from the mission statement. Now who the %#$* knows what the Mets mission statement is, but what they seem to be doing is trying to "light a fire" under Minaya. The problem is that you can light a fire to make somebody hustle, or give more effort. But pressure doesn't make you smarter. School makes you smarter. And Minaya graduated Newtown High School way back in 1978. If there's something he didn't pick up before then, it's not coming.

But he's got one chance to fix this. I don't know if that's possible in one season. Problems like the Mets have get fixed from the ground up, and that takes years. Maybe Minaya can do what he does best and go after the best free agents out there, whom to me are Matt Holliday (NLDS Game 2 error not withstanding) and John Lackey. But that's going to be rough. Holliday would have to do what few do, and that's play in St. Louis for a half a season then actually leave ... since players love being there. Lackey? I see him either staying in Anaheim or going home to Texas, so Omar might be chasing his tail on both of them. With the rest of the free agent market lukewarm at best, Omar is going to have to change course and try something else.

Maybe that draft class from 2008 which includes Ike Davis and Reese Havens will be confirm Minaya's skills as a builder. But who knows if and when the Mets can reap those grains? Maybe Chris Carter will be a good first step, but that's assuming he makes the club. Minaya's best chances to fix this might not contribute until after he's gone. Since much of his staff will be starting from scratch, is there really a chance to make meaningful improvements in one season?

You want to fix it this year? Well, that might involve mortgaging some future, and that's what makes a lame duck dangerous, getting rid of future to save his job today. Here's the two edges to this sword: A: People say you have no future in your farm system ... and that's part of what needs fixing with this organization. But B: Omar says that's overblown, that there are some pieces that other teams want. All right, prove it. Make a trade for Derrek Lee if that's the case. Make a trade for Dan Uggla and Jeremy Hermida and give Florida more salary relief if that's the case. Make a trade for Doc Halladay if that's the case.

I don't know what the exact answer is. But if you want to fix this, maybe a good way to start is to watch a replay of the Tigers/Twins playoff, where you'll see two teams with talent up and down the roster, not to mention the balls to trust that talent when it mattered most. (You'll also see a team who won said playoff game where the winning pitcher was a guy you released in '05 ... probably to make room for Julio Franco or Juan Marichal or Juan Marichal's grandmother on the 40 man roster.)

Maybe a good way to start is to not waste roster spots on broken heroes on a last chance power drive. Don't even think about giving Gary Sheffield another season. I don't care what kind of numbers he put up, his signing was a mistake. Nick Evans' lost season was probably due in no small part because of Sheffield's signing pushing him to the minors and starting him on the abyss. Were 10 HR's and 43 RBI's worth that? Hopefully, Evans will be a viable option on the bench next season (heaven knows that Snoop Manuel made him familiar on the bench in September), along with Carter, and maybe Hermida if you trade for him. They can't be any worse than Fernando Tatis and his band of empty bench spots as the Mets played the whole season with anywhere from 23-19 players.

Maybe another way to start would be to take a chance on Miguel Cabrera, as the Tigers might try to trade him after his escapades during the last weekend of the season. Now, notice I didn't say that it would be another "good" way to start. Sure, while you wouldn't get him cheap, you might be able to get him at a slightly reduced rate. But if you want to change the entitlement that the locker room has been accused of having, Cabrera would be the absolute worst option you could choose. I know it's tempting, but now that the Mets are on a streak of sweeping final series, the last thing the Mets need is a lazy problem child who goes on benders and tells kids they're fat after once being as big as an El Dorado.

Other than that, have at it. Go forth and fix the team, somehow someway. Just go against everything you've ever been taught about how to run a team. Easy, right? Figure out what you've learned, Omar. Then forget all of it.

A Dirty Undertaking

Dan Uggla hit two home runs (including one off Johan Santana, whose elbow did not explode on impact) in the Marlins' 16-8 spring victory over the Mets last night at Tradition Field.

I thought it was a little much that the Marlins wandered the field after the game scooping out cups of Tradition Field dirt for souvenirs to go with their Shea Stadium dirt. To me, that's just rubbing it in.

(Sorry, that wasn't Uggla out there scooping dirt. That was the undertaker getting ready to bury Tim Redding's chances of winning the fifth starter job. My mistake.)

Your 2008 N.L. East Preview: Part One

Today, we begin our preview of the National League East by looking at what should constitute the bottom half of the division.

It's easy to dismiss the Florida Marlins as 2008's permanent resident of the N.L. East cellar. After all, their best two players are in Detroit gearing up for a World Series run, while the average age of the Marlins roster is the lowest in the league at 12 (it would have been 7, except for Luis Gonzalez.) But remember that we all had the Nationals as 120 game losers last year (not me ... I had them at a much more reasonable number, although it was still well off). And on paper, the Marlins have a better starting staff coming into '08 than the Nationals had going into '07, with former New Jersey Net Mark Hendrickson (who was once posterized by Michael Jordan), Scott Olsen (who was once posterized by the Miami Police), and super-phenom Andrew Miller leading the way.

The Marlins strength this season might be in the bullpen, where Kevin Gregg was a pleasant surprise as their closer last season after Jorge Julio took another step towards oblivion. The combination of Gregg, Matt Lindstrom (who will continue his assault of the Mets while Jason Vargas is on the shelf for four months), Taylor Tankerseley and Justin Miller had 272 K's in 260 innings pitched. And don't forget Logan Kensing, who was injured for much of '07.

And the Fish will be able to hit some too. They finished a respectable sixth in the N.L. with 790 runs scored, and making their returns will be guys like Hanley Ramirez (who as far as I can fathom, still hates the Mets and everything about them), Dan Uggla, and Josh Willingham. The problem is who's not returning: Miguel Cabrera and his 119 RBI last season. His replacement will be Jorge Cantu, who's going to have to close his eyes really hard and pretend it's 2005 when he drove in 117 runs for the Devil Rays. And as we all know, it's hard to hit a baseball with your eyes closed.

What's going to sink the Marlins to the bottom of the standings is the fact that the top three in their rotation just isn't going to be able to give the bullpen enough quality starts to try and finish off. And the fourth and fifth starters are going to wind up being Rick VandenHurk and Ricky Nolasco. Uh-oh.

While I'm not ready to peg the Marlins for 120 losses, I am ready to buy a housewarming gift for their permanent '08 residence in the cellar. I hear lava lamps are making a comeback.

Marlins: 64-98

***

The Mets this offseason have become the Ronald Reagan of baseball ... supplying weapons to the enemy. Between Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge, the Washington Nationals scare the ever loving life out of me. (Did you know that Milledge already has a fan club in DC?)

Besides motivation, the Nats have all the ingredients for a surprise season. New ballpark. Solid manager. And most importantly, they have one of the budding young superstars in the game in Ryan Zimmerman. The Washington Nationals could contend into September. But there are some questions for me concerning the Nats:

• There are some divergent personalities in that clubhouse ... and as Bobcat Goldthwait once said: "Either this is really going to work or this is really gonna suck." Will they come together and have slumber parties where they break out their fuzzy pajamas, roast marshmallows and sing campfire songs? Can Elijah Dukes, Paul Lo Duca, Dmitri Young, Lastings Milledge, and Ronnie Belliard et al share a clubhouse without driving each other crazy?


• And speaking of Lo Duca, you had Brian Schneider guiding a very patchwork starting pitching staff towards a respectable season in 2007. So what will a change in catchers do? Is Lo Duca's fiery style what guys like Matt Chico, Jason Bergmann, and Tim Redding need to take the next step towards respectability? Or will this pitching staff prove to have a need for Schneider's easy hand and fall apart under Lo Duca?


• How are the Nationals going to turn their extra first baseman (and as of right now it's Dmitri Young) into some parts that will improve the club like, say, starting pitching? And can they even do it? Young hovered close to 300 pounds this spring, and Nick Johnson outplayed him in the spring by a large margin. Can Dmitri even bring back anything in a trade? Or will he just be put on waivers so that the Braves can pick him up?

Nationals: 80-82

***

Speaking of the Braves picking guys up on waivers, I have to be really careful here to not assume that Atlanta snaring Ruben Gotay is going to shift the balance of power in the National League East, or change what I'm about to write. My pessimistic self is tempted to do it, but I'll refrain. Here's why:

I think the Atlanta Braves are overrated.

(Blesses self and makes sure lightning doesn't strike him)

There's no reason to cry and whine about how everybody and their mother is picking the Braves to win the N.L. East this season. It only seems that way. The fact of the matter is that there are are plenty of people out there picking the Mets. But there are an awful lot of pundits that are picking the Atlanta Braves. I understand why ... it's because there are a lot of people who look at the names on the jerseys and want to believe that it's 1995.

And yes, Mark Teixeira is damn good. Anyone who's in his prime and shows an ability to go .300/.400/.500 more than once is deserving of your praise and your awe. And Tim Hudson is back to being a legitimate number one starter. Players like Chipper Jones and John Smoltz have hit those kinds of numbers often. And that's the problem. The Braves are a team that collectively have hit their ceiling. There aren't a lot of guys that are primed to improve by a significant amount, while with all of the old/injury prone guys that the Braves are counting a large amount on, there's potential for disaster. Let me ask you this: If the Mets were headed into this season with the core of their team all over 35 years old, how many people do you think would be picking the Mets to win?

I'll go one step further: If the Mets were headed into this season with a third baseman who has consistently missed a good amount of games in the last four seasons, a pitcher who has missed the last two seasons in full, a 40-year-old pitcher who has had nagging injuries during the spring, and a 42-year-old pitcher last seen giving up seven runs in a third of an inning, how many people do you think would be picking the Mets to win? Certainly not as many as are picking the Braves right now, I'll tell you that.

I think the Braves are a third place team. But put a gun to my head and ask me to predict whether the Braves will break into the top two or the bottom two, then believe it or not I'm guessing lower. Outside of Hudson and Teixeira, the major components to the Braves are old, brittle, or both. And unlike seasons past, Andruw Jones ain't walkin' through that door. (Some might say that these days, Andruw Jones needs margarine to merely fit through the door.)

Braves: 82-80

Part two comin' soon! (Considering the season starts Monday, it would have to come real soon, wouldn't it?)

A Sledgehammer To The Solar Plexus

How much more are we supposed to take?

A thirty foot roller up the third base line wasn't enough, was it...

An interference call wasn't enough, was it...

An 11-10 loss in the ninth wasn't enough, was it...
A misplayed pop-up by a back-up catcher wasn't enough, was it...

A misplayed fly ball into center field wasn't enough, was it...

Guillermo Mota wasn't enough, was it...

Ten errors in two days wasn't enough, was it...

Yadier Molina, Terry Pendleton, Kevin Elster picking up black cats, Armando Benitez, Mike Scioscia, Tom Seaver for Doug Flynn, firecrackers, bleach, Mel Rojas, Don Aase, Larry Jones, Brian Jordan, Art Howe, Adam Wainwright, Jimmy Qualls...they're not enough, are they...

What else can you do to our hearts, minds, and souls this season?

Maybe as the Mets are headed to Dolphin Stadium tomorrow, Cecil Wiggins can finish the job.

Maybe Wiggins was the one that threw that baseball at Aaron Heilman from the stands (and through all of the horror, Heilman was a major bright spot...not even I could have blamed him if he had spit the bit after being hit by a projectile from the stands...I don't trust him, but I give him a boat load of credit tonight.) Or maybe Wiggins had something to do with Country Time's back spasms, which kept him out of the game and wound up sealing our fate for Thursday night...and maybe our season.

You know what, bring up last year's Tigers all you want. Bring up last year's Cardinals all you want. I can't imagine that either of those teams experienced any loss last year like any loss the Mets have had this year. Either of those teams ever score four runs in the top of the ninth, only to have their "B" list bullpen give it all back in the bottom half of the frame, then lose it in the tenth.

And I doubt that this happened after their first baseman proclaimed their team to be the best in the league.

I doubt either of those teams had a right fielder that hits his second baseman in the nuts with an errant throw, then gets himself tossed, and probably suspended for a few games, because he felt that late in a game that may decided the division was the perfect time to work through his anger issues with Jim Joyce.

And I doubt that Jim Leyland or Tony La Russa responded to any of those losses with:

"We'll get 'em tomorrow."

We'll get 'em tomorrow?

I don't know if there's a right thing to say after a game like that. But "we'll get 'em tomorrow?" Really? That's what your uncle told you after you struck out to end a little league game. This, however, is the major leagues...and that's not what I need to hear. I trust that the speech to the players was a little bit different...at least I hope.

We'll get 'em tomorrow? You know what I'm getting tomorrow? Therapy. I need it...thanks to your team stabbing me in my heart. Again. It's all I can do to keep from jumping off a tall building into jagged concrete...twice.

(Editor's note: If you must blow the lead completely, please make it relatively painless from here on out.)

Your 2007 N.L. East Preview: Florida Marlins

Some of the greatest lies told in history:

1. "The check is in the mail."
2. "I'll respect you in the morning."
3. "I knew the Marlins would be good last year."

No, it's not. No, you aren't. And no...you didn't.

The Marlins were the most surprising story of 2006 after "Fire Sale II: Electric Boogaloo" that previous winter. Who dared to give the Marlins a chance to hang around the .500 mark one season after unloading the likes of Josh Beckett, Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre, and two players who were major Mets contributors in Carlos Delgado and Paul Lo Duca.

But every break that the Marlins could have gotten in terms of the development of young players, they got. Hanley Ramirez was the Rookie of the Year without leading the rookies in his own team in HR's and RBI...that honor went to middle infield partner Dan "Rule Five" Uggla. Josh Willingham went .277/26/74 in his first full season. Mike Jacobs overcame a lousy first two months and an injury riddled last two months to hit .262 with 20 HR's (shows you how good those middle two months were). Anibal Sanchez went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA and a no-hitter to his credit (that's four no-hitters for the Marlins in their history, none for the Mets...just thought I'd throw that out there). Scott Olsen went 12-10 with a 4.04 ERA and almost killed Miguel Cabrera.

The Marlins' rookies were so good that the one rookie I thought would shine probably had the tamest season of them all.

The Marlins shored up their bullpen today by trading prospect Yusmeiro Petit for Julio Jorge (no, Anna...it's Jorge Julio) , who will be their closer. (It always scares me when former Mets are traded for each other...when another circle of life closes like that, the ramifications for Mets personnel and fans alike can't be good.) Sure, Julio was ineffective in New York, but he's a more seasoned option than Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom (see, more former Mets involved...very scary), who were the leading candidates to close before the trade. It improves the club, but it does so in a small market kind of way, as part of Julio's charm for Florida was his relative inexpensiveness, as they were also looking towards trading for Armando Benitez (that makes five former Mets used in context regarding another team in one paragraph. I think I just opened up a porthole to an evil alternate universe.)

The Marlins' surprise season made them the odds on "trendy pick" to win in 2007 until the Phillies got hot over the last two months of the season. The big "if", however, is what will happen to this team because of the ouster of Joe Girardi in favor of...well, technically Fredi Gonzalez, but to be real: Joe Girardi was let go in favor of "Not Joe Girardi". Girardi's rules and structure (and general "hard assness") kept a young team together through the end in the wild card race. Can Fredi Gonzalez do the same thing? Well, most managers would be silly to try to be his predecessor. It would also be silly to try too hard to be the "polar opposite" of his predecessor, and I wonder if that's what Gonzalez is going to try to do subconsciously to try to please his owner, Jeffrey Loria ("Sure Mr. Loria, go ahead and yell at the umpires for me...after all, it's your team!")

And don't count out Fire Sale III: Through The Olive Trees as long as Dontrelle Willis continues to be followed by rumors. But even after Willis' brush with the law this offseason, don't be surprised if it's Miguel Cabrera and not Dontrelle that finds a bus ticket out of town under his pillow one July evening.

Prediction: Fourth place, 75-87