It's important not to panic after tonight's 13-4 defeat at the hands of the Washington Nationals. Here's why:
First off, Carlos Beltran didn't hurt any more knees. No, he doesn't have a third knee...but he could have hurt somebody else's knee. (Don't think that's possible? You just don't know this franchise.)
Second, and most important, we know that the Nationals aren't going to lie down and play dead in their last few games...which will come in handy later in the week when they go to Philadelphia.
Boys and girls, Monday night was not a surprise to me. Partly because I understand that this team is trying to kill me. But partly because I fully expect the Nationals, with Pelfrey and Phil Humber starting games this series, to win two out of three. That's correct, I said it. The Nats are going to wind up taking two games this series.
But cheer up, because after they leave town, the Mets are going to run the table. And if they don't, they should be ashamed of themselves. The Cardinals come in for a make-up game on Thursday night, after a flight in from Milwaukee, and then they'll have to fly out to Pittsburgh after the game. If that doesn't reek of a throwaway game for the Cardinals, who will most likely be out of it by then if they're not already, I don't know what does.
And speaking of throwing stuff away, the Marlins come to town for the last three. Amazing games featuring Met meltdowns last Thursday and Sunday aside, the Mets have no business losing to the Florida Marlins. Not this season (some would say not ever, but that's another discussion.) I believe from the depths of my heart that the Marlins have run out of late inning runs.
So if my calculations are correct, then that's 5-1 the rest of the way. Five wins match our magic number, right?
Let's say I'm wrong, and the Mets go, say, 4-2. That would mean the Phillies would have to run the table just to get a playoff game in their backyard. Now, be honest...even the most pessimistic of pessimists: Do you see the Phillies running the table against the Braves and Nationals? Neither of those teams is going to lay down for them, just as the Nationals aren't laying down for the Mets right now. Even if the Mets do the unthinkable and go 3-3, the Phillies can't lose more than once if they want that playoff game.
Now if the Mets go 2-4, then I don't think I even want to be in the playoffs anyway.
15 comments:
as calmly rational as your calculus is, it seems to exclude the obvious. this is the mets we're talking about. the cool sweet relief that logic would otherwise bring is denied us.
don't say something can't happen because of its sheer unlikelihood.
as the bard might say:
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Metstradamus,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
I'll relax when the magic number is zero.
Last night casts more doubt on either the team's talent or focus. Granted, Pelfrey was awful, but how do you not score more on Chico, who has, let's see, zero road victories this season?
Good for you though Metstradamus. If you're capable of being an optimist, then maybe there is hope for all of us.
Comforting, but I keep thinking about the 1998 season . . .
Rick Peterson needs to add two words to his coaching vocabulary . . .
THROW STRIKES!
I'm buying all the local chatter about Ricky Henderson being a cancer in the Mets clubhouse. The story goes that Willie is forced to bite his tongue about Ricky because Minaya brought him here. Henderson was always a selfish player, and I want him out of the Mets clubhouse!
Anybody else buying?
I'm not buying anything, except hopefully a World Champions shirt, and while I can't say I'm happy, i'm confident.
I saw these Nationals play the last two games before last night. They looked horrible, and to say they're not going to lay down isn't totally true. I saw a ball get past the second baseman..and then the rightfielder! and errant throw to first bounced away, and then the rightfielder misplayed it.
Of course I also saw the Nationals hit two triples, that if anyone else (even guys like Shawn Green) was running, they would've had in the park home runs. Both of these were misplays by the Phillies outfield, on a dive by Rowand that he just plain missed in shallow center.
It was the black uniforms. They've gotta stop wearing those. Nothing good happens in the black uniforms.
Bold prediction from Metstradamus.
From your lips to God's ears, or from his to yours . . . whatever it may be, the prospects of this team going 4-2 are -- shaky.
I echo the fears of repeating the 1998 season, when the Mets had a similar lead, and could not find a way to defeat the Atlanta Braves and the Montreal Expos.
Now, these Expos (now Nationals) are back causing distress for the Mets.
Thank you Metstradamus. When I awoke at 4:30 this am, lying in the dark, worrying and feeling terrible about the Mets, I had the thought, "I'll feel better after I read Metstradamus".
Sorry if I have repeated this comment by mistake, I am new to this whole blog thing.
Katherine, welcome to the blogosphere. Just remember: you break it, you pay for it.
I frequently have similar thoughts at 4:30 in the morning, but it usually goes "I'll feel better after some White Castle cheeseburgers". I've been told I do the same thing to people's stomachs.
Metstradamus:
What a great find your blog is. I love it! I will be tuning in for your analysis while we play some meaningful games.
Metstra-
can you PLEASE tell me when the next Mets starter will pitch worth a darn?
But yeah, I feel you about how the Mets stack up as we round 3rd and head home on the season.
As I write this Tom Glavine has just thrown 5 innings of 6-run schlock. So once again the bullpen has to go the long haul.
im watching the game now. Not going according to the plan. Aren't the Mets supposed to win tonight and lose tomorrow?
Glavine pitched a stinker and Mets bats are sleeping.
OK, I guess plan B is Phil Humber is such a stranger to the Nats that he throws shutout ball through 7. Oh, and the Met bats come alive tomorrow night. I'm pretty happy the Phils lost, but that is heavily tempered by the fact that we squandered another opportunity to drive that big nail in their season.
I don't think you can use "calculations" to analyze how things will play out with this team. In 30 years of watching baseball, I have never seen 2 or 3 weeks like this...with blown leads...comebacks that fall just short...drama night after night. The only reason that the Mets aren't tied with the Phillies is that they haven't taken care of business over the past couple of days. The Mets are sloppy, tired, and certainly don't look like a playoff team.
Nationals will take two out of three you say? Try Humber trying to save the series? A sweep perhaps? And don't discount the Marlins...they're sloppy but they'll play. Only a few give up in MLB...and its not the Nats, Rays, Marlins, or Jays. Most are professionals and will play for pride and next year's role or contract.
The Phillies (and Braves) are not out of it even if they can't catch the Mets....with the Padres falling apart...the Phils certainly can wild card.
I don't know how Met fans do it? At the end of the day they will win a couple of games and lock it up or back in. The playoffs present a clean slate and hopefully will bring some better fundamental baseball.
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