Friday, November 25, 2005

Plan B is a J.

If this is true, then Billy Wagner had better choose Flushing.

If Wagner goes back to Philadelphia, then you could add all the Carlos Delgados and Alfonso Sorianos and Mannys and Zitos and Bengies (oh my!) that you would like. The Mets are not winning the N.L. East without a dominant closer.

Because now, Plan B is shacking up north of the border. And the Mets are perilously close to being up the creek.

10 comments:

Jordan said...

I would have to agree and disagree on this one. The Phillies had 88 wins last year, assuming they re-sign Wagner and get no one else (includes losing Urbina), and their young players progress id assume that they'd have about 90-92 wins, which is almost a stretch because thier pen will be weaker,and their rotation will probably get worse...Now, the Mets on the other hand, with Hoffman, will have filled an offense need. So lets say tht adds 3-4 wins....Then they add Hoffman, who is no longer a dominant closer but he only surrendered three blown saves this year. NOw, lets add 1-3 more blown saves because he is getting older. The combination fo Looper and Roberto Hernandez blew 16 games i believe. Should the Mets not sign another set-up man then the 2 big relievers would be Heilman and Hoffman, and possibly some Padilla if he continues to produce. Anyway, Heilan probably will also blow a few games so lets have 6 blown saves on the year from the set up and closer role. This adds 10 wins to the team if it stays the same from last year. That gives us a 93 win season, w/o delgado. With Delgado, you take pressure off of Beltran, which could add a win or two, plus the offense of delgado and wright and reyes getting better adds 2-3 more win. Now, if i am correct in my above statements the Mets should have around 96 wins. However, i think that is a bit farfechted because i don think the Mets next year (without Wagner) can have 96 wins. So lets add a blown save to each Heilman and Hoffman, giving the Mets 94 wins, which should in this case win the division, barring another Braves division win which i honestly don't see happening next year. The braves have no closer, they dont have Hampton, they basically have no bullpen, and they have no leadoff hitter. So they have to make some big moves and even though they r the Barves i dont see them winning the division this year

Metstradamus said...

Jordan,

I want to counter this but I need you to explain something to me. You said this: "Now, the Mets on the other hand, with Hoffman, will have filled an offense need. So lets say tht adds 3-4 wins"

How does Hoffman fill an offensive need? I don't exactly follow you on that one.

Jordan said...

sorry what I meant to say was with hoffman and a filled offensive need (Delgado), you can automatically add 3-4 wins

Metstradamus said...

OK, in that case you added wins for Delgado twice. Remind me not to hire you to keep my books ;)

If more offense (Delgado) gets you 3-4 more wins, then most likely that's three or four more games the bullpen is going to have to close out. 93-96 is a realistic number, but Wagner makes it more realistic than anyone left. I think Ryan would have had the same effect but he's gone now.

Overpaying for Wagner is one thing. But now if Wagner is gone, you know the Mets are going to overpay to get Trevor Hoffman...and that would be the best case scenario at that point. But who knows how much Hoffman has left. And Hoffman isn't going to want to split any time with Heilman.

And also, just my guess, I have a feeling that Heilman will be in the rotation by the time April comes around.

Jordan said...

I wasn't saying Heilman would split time with Hoffman, sometimes u can blow a svae in the 8th inning which was what i was implying. I think Wagner over Hoffman, may add 1-2 more wins but not many more. I agree about Ryan i think they would put up similar years, Wagner probably will be a tad better but not by much. With the BJ Ryan deal every closer will be overpaid, Hoffman in my estimation will probably make 7-8 million although i believe he is asking for 9 mill a year which is outrageous. Id probably sign Hoffman to a one year deal with an option for a second, and i dont think he has much left probably one more year, 2 at most. But i did not see him this year so idk how much his stuff is declining...Obviously its still relativley good if he can save 40 games

The Metmaster said...

What the hell was Toronto thinking? This is reminiscent of Tom Hicks bidding against himself for A-Rod. This is going to cost the Mets some serious $$$$ to bag Wagner.

Minglet said...

Mestra..i think its time to start believing in the rangers.

Couple things of note:

- Ville's reaction after he kept the rangers alive.
- Henrik's poise in net through all 15 rounds..remember he is a rookie
- Marek Malik having the...testicular fortitude to go through the legs, top shelf on Olie in Round 15.

INCREDIBLE!

Anonymous said...

Mestra - I can't find anywhere else to publish this - How does one finely chop Mayonnaise?

Metstradamus said...

With a mayonaisse chopper, silly!

Anonymous said...

plan A is in effect. wagner signs 4/43!

pj