Negativity? Here's Where To Find Some

One of my favorite Mets blogs had this to say a while back:

"I just can't believe how negative some Mets fans have become, scouring the blogosphere I've seen nothing but negative comments about how the Mets are handling the off-season."-Mets Fever

What Ed says is interesting because it's something I investigate in myself from time to time. Currently, I'm spending long chunks of time in deep meditation with the help of some mind altering drugs in far away caves (code for "too busy playing Bejeweled"). Seriously, it's a daily struggle not to turn this blog into the Rego Park version of "Hey You Kids, Get Off My Lawn". And if the Mets wouldn't give me so much material, maybe I'd be a bit friendlier and more optimistic.

But I'm trying. For example, here's how low my standards have gotten: The Mets signed Mike Hessman today. If Mike Hessman came up to me and hit me in the head with a baseball bat, I wouldn't know who he was. Then again, if Mike Hessman came up to me and hit me in the head with a baseball bat, I'd be happy just because he made contact (he's a .229 career minor league hitter). And, he's 32 years old. For the Mets, that's a youth movement.

But negativity is unavoidable this off-season, no matter what. Forget what has happened the last three seasons. Forget that this fan base is generally angry. Forget that my seminal moment in person with the Mets this season was turned into a Washington Nationals Christmas card (my constant heckling of the team immediately after this game did not make the card ... now that would have been a Christmas greeting.) But any direction the Mets go, whether it's an actual direction or whether it's just going around in a circle chasing your tail, has negativity involved.

Here are some of the options this off season:

• First tier: Holliday, Lackey, Bay, Hudson
• Second tier: Pineiro, Molina, Wolf, Torrealba, Marquis
• Trades: Hart, Bradley, Phillips, Harang, Matthews, Burrell, Halladay
• The Caulking Gun Strategy: Blanco, Hessman

Now the best case scenario for the Mets would be the Pu Pu Platter Approach ... one from each column. Ideally, it's the only scenario. Realistically, the Mets are going to be that guy from the Toyota commercial left without a car during the Dealathon, yet there's nobody there to tell them that there's more cars in the back. The ideal approach would require imaginative thinking that, frankly, I don't think this organization has. Certainly not the type of thinking and guts that brought a certain other team in town Curtis Granderson. Hell, this team's idea of imaginative thinking is changing the pinstriped uniform from white to cream. They can't even come up with good ideas for ticket plans before Christmas, so why should I accept a multi pronged approach to player personnel? Walking and chewing gum at the same time would be a good first step.

My ultimate point is this: even the best case scenario for this off-season isn't without its risks. It's not like 2007-08 when there was one end game for off season success in Johan Santana, or even last season when, even though the Mets had a few holes, the bullpen was by far the leakiest faucet. Whatever the Mets do, whether it be sign either Holliday, Bay, Lackey or Hudson and risk that their best days aren't behind them, sign Pineiro or Wolf and risk a drop in production, trade for Hart, Phillips/Harang or Matthews and risk the player they trade away become a superstar, or trade for Burrell and risk having to send a search party to find him in left field sometime during the sixth inning, nothing this winter is a slam dunk.

But that's not to give the Mets an out here. Conversely, this is the type of off-season where the Mets have to show the imagination they've rarely shown or even had to have shown. For example, that John Maine for Corey Hart rumored deal shows some of that. But if you're going to tell Met fans that Corey Hart, and not Bay or Holliday is their left fielder, you had better also tell them that one of the dominoes that need to fall for that deal to happen is John Lackey, or else the negativity is going to be out in full force, rather than the half force that you would get if you just signed, say, Bay and Lackey.

But hell, even Bay, Lackey and Holliday each have their question marks, whether it be an ability to navigate the Citi outfield, or being injury prone. But the biggest question mark would be whether it's worth it to spend big for 2010 when, let's be honest, the Phillies are still pretty much going to dominate the division, while bigger free agents are on the horizon for 2011 and beyond.

So whatever happens, it's going to be hard not to be somewhat negative. The only question is how much so. Are the Mets going to make the risky yet bold moves? Are they going to do just enough to throw out the mirage of competitiveness? Or am I going to have to gently tell the neighborhood Christmas carolers to get off my lawn?

Life's Tough, So Man Up

It's more than a little unnerving to exit an airplane to this:

"Mets Trade For Burrell"

Of course, it turned out not to be true ... yet. To think, I wasted perfectly good vomit over nothing.

Some have asked me if I could ever accept a member of the charter Hall of Hate club as one of our own if he was traded here, or if I would take that person off the list forever. In Burrell's case I'd consider it. But there's a catch.

Burrell, as you all can probably recite, has 42 career home runs off Met pitching in 634 plate appearances. 634 divided into 5,864, Burrell's total amount of plate appearances, is roughly 9.25. Multiply that by that number 42, you get the amount of home runs Burrell would have to hit as a Met for me to take him out of the Hall of Hate.

388.

Statistically impossible? Considering he'd be playing in Citi Field and not Shea Stadium, and that it would be hard for Burrell to get another 5,864 plate appearances on the other side of 30, well then he'd better eat right and take lots of steroids. Life's tough.

***

And speaking of life being tough, seems that the Mets signed and re-signed Elmer Dessens to help mentor Oliver Perez ... and the signing of Henry Blanco is another step in that direction.

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Man up. Nannies are for infants.

Looks Like Bob Is Throwing Them Hard ... And Straight

In a world where nothing is ever as it seems, you can count on three things to be certain in life:

You will die.

You will pay taxes or go to jail avoiding them.

Pat Burrell will play a part in your demise.

And when Bobby Parnell is in the midst of a patch as rough as this, you can be sure that Burrell will be there to take advantage. Oh, he could be wearing a different uniform. He could have a goatee that makes him look like Richard Karn. He could be visiting your new ballpark instead of the old one that he liked to haunt for so long. But it doesn't matter ... because when you root for the Mets, you have no choice but to experience two of life's certainties rolled into one: Death by Burrell.

Burrell merely started the rally off of the slumping Parnell that B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria finished off in the seventh. But you knew he would be involved in some capacity. Parnell just proved the theory that pitches may be fast, but the straight ones go faster towards the wall.

And before we go all "oh great, the offense finally delivered and the pitching falls apart", let's remember that one run was scored on a wild pitch, one run was scored on a base hit by Mike Pelfrey, one run was scored on a fielder's choice by Gary Sheffield, and another three run dinger by Babe Schneider. Yeah, the runs count ... but how many of them were legit? How long is the public supposed to depend on wild pitches and base hits by pitchers and Schneider pretending he's some sort of slugger?

Did you realize, as I didn't until today, that Mets catchers have driven in more runs than any other group of catchers in the league? Seriously? Do they get, like, the William M. Jennings trophy for that? Oh, there's no award for that? Let's invent one:

"The Ron Hodges Trophy."

More telling is that the Mets have gotten more RBI from the catcher position than any other position. What that tells, and who it tells of, I don't know. But it can't be good. So how's about Omar Minaya work the phones and get an honest to goodness run producer before the Phillies realize they're not as bad as they've been this week. Just an idea.

(Editor's note: You know what will happen now, right? Omar will try to acquire Burrell ... and the next sound you'll hear will be Metstradamus banging his head against the wall.)

Drifting All The Way Home

People have asked me over the offseason if I thought the Mets could win with Daniel Murphy's defense in left field. My response was that if the Phillies could win with Pat Burrell playing left field, then the Mets could win with Murphy.

Murphy's drop which led to the two unearned Marlin runs had nothing to do with an infielder playing outfield. That had nothing to do with range, ability, nothing lying alongside of the UZR road. That was, plainly and simply, dopey. And we'll just have to accept that along with all of the good things Murphy is going to bring to the table, every once in a while he's going to do that. Hopefully, not all of his blunders are going to be the kind of mistakes that turn Johan Santana gems into Josh Johnson gems.

Now, here's the thing about this 2-1 loss which drops the Mets to 3-3: There's no reason for panic because they dropped two of three to Florida. Sure, you don't want to waste Johan Santana starts, and they haven't wasted many since that June day in '08 when women went crazy and Yankee fans were ... well, Yankee fans. You can, however, start panicking if the Mets lose two out of three to the Padres at home. And before you tell me I'm crazy for even suggesting that scenario against a team that Gary Cohen said would have trouble merely competing during a spring broadcast back on March 19th, remember this: Oliver Perez starts on Wednesday. Jake Peavy starts on Thursday. If the Mets somehow lose Monday's opener, then all those pigeons ready to push that panic button could be let loose by Thursday. Remember, this Padre team is 5-2.

(What it probably all means is that the Mets will lose Monday and win the next two. Logic? What's that?)

Hopefully, logic will hold for at least one game, and the Mets will pull out a win for the first real game ever in the new digs. Even with the two games against the Red Sox, even with me having been to one of them, I still don't know how I'm going to react to seeing a Mets home game that counts played somewhere other than Shea. Every opening day I was ever at was played at Shea. I was there for Craig Swan's two run single in 1980, after skipping school. (There were really only 12,000+ at that one?) I was there for Seaver's return in '83 ... again, after skipping school. Strawberry's dinger off of Pascual Perez in 1988? Yup, skipped school again. The Rockies' debut at Shea? I probably skipped some nutty college class for that too. In fact, I was at every home opener between '87-'93. If I hadn't skipped so much school I probably would have made more of my life.

And I have to admit that I was a little emotional after being at Citi Field for the first time, and having it really hit me that Shea is really gone, reduced to a pile of rubble that shrinks every day as if it was a division lead in September of '07. But the past is the past, and the future is upon us. If you're like me, you'll have to remind yourself every once in a while that progress is good.

My only hope is that the vibe from the stands, the atmosphere that made Shea so unique, the one that Mets fans created will make its way across the parking lot. There was always a certain roar that came from Shea that was so recognizable to me that I could close my eyes, have a random game on, and I knew that the game was being played at Shea. Something was always different from the roar after a strikeout at Shea than the roar after a strikeout anywhere else. That was more fans than building, but the building had a little something to do with it.

Who knows if that roar will return ... we're all still feeling our way through this new park, and you know that at least in the beginning, there will be a lot of people visiting more for new architecture and better food than to watch Luis Castillo butcher a ground ball. So that unique atmosphere might not be all there to start. That's to be expected. Hopefully familiarity and a pennant race will bring that atmosphere, along with some home field advantage, to the new digs. Here's hoping.

Happy housewarming.

Odds And Ends

Because an abundance of off-season blog posts aren't in the budget anymore (stupid sub-prime loans!)

The Mets have apparently offered Tim Redding a contract to be the next pitcher to lose the last game of the season and knock the Mets from the playoffs. Then he'll have more time to work on that golf swing.

Is it me, or is Scott Boras less of an agent and more of a used car salesman these days? ("I have an older model that still purrs, and a flashier model that sometimes has trouble with the ignition. I offer financing plans for both which involve a nice commission for me. What can I interest you in?")

And by the way, remember when we were sick of blogging about the Mets trading for Manny Ramirez? Now we're getting sick of blogging about signing Derek Lowe. How is it that over the years our sights just get set lower and lower?

Pat Burrell? Let him terrorize the Yankees now. Then maybe he'll work his way out of the Hall of Hate.

(Editor's note: Oh who are we kidding?)

J.C. Romero? You know, fifty games off is just more opportunity to rest so he can kill the Mets in the last 112.

And you know J.C. rhymes with G.N.C. What? I'm just sayin'. (For the record, J.C. probably got screwed.)

This Fourth Firecracker Is A Dud

If somehow the Mets lose the fourth of July matchup with starts out as Johan Santana vs. J.A. Happ, I may never watch baseball again. -Metstradamus, yesterday

Did I just lose a retirement match? Do I need a parental control on my baseball package?

What's tonight's excuse? Pitchers with initials give you trouble?

So how did we know this one was over? Well outside of not hitting J.A. Happ for four innings and Chad Durbin for two and 1/3, for me it was when Carlos Beltran swung at ball four by his eyes with the bases loaded up 2-0 in the fifth. Beltran was 0 for 4 with two K's. I guess he needs more flippin' rest.

Or maybe just the pure ironic fact that Filthy Sanchez got through Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell in the ninth with no problem, but somehow not Pedro Feliz and Shane Victorino. But having said that, Victorino, a fast lefty with first base open, should have been walked. No doubt about it. Victorino is a pest who strikes out at a lower rate than Chris Coste, who was on deck, or anybody they could have pinch hit for him such as Greg Dobbs or Geoff Jenkins.

But why bother with even that little analysis. The Mets lost the one game in this series they had no business losing, after Johan Santana pitched a whale of a game. And of course, it's not only a loss, but a brutal loss ... because what other kinds of losses are we going to see in Philadelphia?

And since it's now July 4th, the magic day that people like to point to and say that teams in the lead on this day make the playoffs a certain amount of time, it's now the first day that I can say without fear of backlash that you're going to have a tough time convincing me that both this team and this season aren't a complete waste of time.

Shea Stadium: The Board Game

Off days and rainouts stink.

What is a Met fan to do on those lonely off days and rainouts during April besides wonder why Willie Randolph consistently mismanages his bullpen?

Well now, you can combine off-day fun with Shea Stadium nostalgia with a great new board game titled: "Shea Stadium: The Board Game"! Can you get through a day at Shea without being pinched by the ushers, buying a cold knish, getting into an fistfight with a Yankee fan, or seeing Carlos Beltran strike out in a big spot? Now, you can experience the fun, excitement, and frustration of seeing the Mets at Shea Stadium from the comfort of your own living room! So help celebrate the final season at Shea Stadium with this addicting board game!

*Click board for optimal view ... template shamlessly stolen from here. Extended game play may cause drooling and dizzyness.

Iguchi Kinda Rhymes With Taguchi

FEMA has declared the Mets clubhouse an official disaster area. Sadly, FEMA can't help them (it's just like real life).

I got calls from all across the country today to make sure I was alive.

Patchogue.

Los Angeles.

Chicago.

Twice.

Not that I answered the phone. You would think that people would know better than to call me fresh after a loss like that.

But one call I did take was from Art Howe. He congratulated the team for battling.

"We'll bounce back. We're not going to fold any tents." -Willie Randolph

Great, the manager has been reading the Art Howe "Book of Folksy Quotes." I give up.

Are you like me...waiting for the headline on Yahoo! Sports that says "Wagner Sets Crotch on Fire After Loss?"

(And for those who question Randolph asking Country Time to get six outs, I ask you this: Would you have trusted Aaron Heilman to face Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, and Ryan Howard?)

Just remember: they're not saying "boo", they're saying...oh I can't even finish that with a straight face. They're saying "boo".

Along with other expletives.

We're still in first place, right? Sure feels that way, don't it?

But it's the same thing every year. Mets lose "one of those games", and I get phone calls from Yankee fans all over the country asking if I'm OK, like they really f***ing care. They probably want to see me dead anyway. Whether it's Yadier Molina, or Braden Looper, or Luis Sojo doing the damage, the phone calls always come; "oh, another tough one, huh?" or, "just calling to say we suck", or "if you're in Philadelphia watching this game I'm going to shoot you".

It's the same f***ing phone calls every season. I mean, I actually wondered today what deal was made with the devil for 1969? And did the devil give a cut rate deal for my soul in exchange for '86? And then I left the house...and I saw a guy wearing a big placard hawking psychic readings by "Teresa", who apparently will show me the way to fix all of my problems. And the guy wearing the sign was also wearing a Yankee hat.

The only thing I'm asking the psychic is this: How are the Mets going to lose tomorrow?

Because it can't get any worse, can it?

Oh wait, the Mets are going to Atlanta. Damn. Time to visit the psychic.

Then I'll hit the shrink on the way back.

Phil Leotardo and Terry Pendleton: A Bond Shared In The Depths Of Hell

I know how The Sopranos is going to end!

Before the New Jersey crew can be whacked by the New York crew, the Philadelphia crew comes out of nowhere and whacks the New York crew!

Oh wait, that already happened!

I don't think you're giving enough credit to Philly (certainly the Met broadcasters were). They did it all...starters, bullpen, clutch hitting, defense. They really made a statement in this series. -Benny Agbayani

Yeah, they made a statement all right: "Go f**k yourselves, New York!"

(Let's assume that's the real Benny Agbayani...because it's more fun that way. Besides, my wife always liked him.)

All right Benny, here's the credit I'll give the Phillies: Chase Utley is a hell of a ball player. He plays the game the right way and he's a legitimate major league baseball superstar. Yeah, he's a Met killer, but not in the "I'm Pat Burrell and I'm a lifetime Met killer but against the rest of baseball I couldn't hit the broadside of a glacier" Met killer kind of way, but he's a Met killer in the sense that he's an equal opportunity assassin.

Jimmy Rollins? Yeah, he pissed off a lot of Met fans including myself. But let's face it, we've got a complex about not getting the respect we so richly deserve in this city. So when Jimmy Rollins made that "best team on paper" remark, we didn't exactly take it in stride. But Jimmy Rollins never said anything bad about us...no matter if he thinks these things or not. And why should he care what we think? He's a damn good ballplayer too.

Cole Hamels? Damn good.

Ryan Howard? Even though we're not seeing it this season so far, he's also a mighty fine ballplayer.

And if you offered me multiple Aaron Rowands I'd take them (as long as I could still have Jose Reyes and David Wright and both Carloses and Paul Lo Duca...so I'd really only need two or three.)

So now here's what pisses me off about the Phillies...

Who is Yoel Hernandez and why can't the Mets hit him?

Mike Zagurski? Are you kidding me? I know the Mets are down to their fifth, sixth, and ninth outfielders, but Mike Zagurski??? Guy looks like Terry Forster on an Atkins diet.

Antonio Alfonseca? Three saves out of three chances? He replaced Brett Myers as the closer because Brett Myers...you know I mind as well tell you the truth: Antonio Alfonseca ate Brett Myers (before picking the remnants from his teeth with both of his extra fingers).

Oh don't get me started on Pat Burrell...

"It's one of those things...I can't explain." -Pat Burrell

Yuk yuk, oh shucks...I don't know? Which way did he go George?

Jeez, now watch him torch the Royals pitching staff for a big fat 0 for 14, can he explain that?

I can't get on Country Time. He's been money for the Mets all season, and it really, really, sucks that this was his hiccup. I mean, what a way to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Terry Pendleton home run...by reaching back through time and shaking hands with Roger McDowell. (Ironic that on the Yahoo! front page, the lead story has to do with how Billy Wagner gives the Mets an edge over the Tigers and their struggling bullpen this weekend...meanwhile the Mets lost three games because of their bullpen, and the Tigers won tonight. That's just what I want to see...greeeeeeeat!!!)

And I can't even get on Scott Schoeneweis. Normally, I would...you know me. But damn, how insensitive would I be if I railed on a guy who, it was just revealed, has been pitching with a severed tendon in his leg? Severed!!! I can't do it. Can't! He's going out there pitching in complete pain and there's nothing he can do about it. You can talk about the contract all you want and how he's not living up to it. But he's trying to work through it through pain. And it's not like the pain that two weeks rest is going to help (or not, if you're Moises Alou...would it help if he peed on his quad? Hey, I'm just asking). It's the kind of pain that just has to be negotiated and worked through. His stats suck, but the guy's got a little warrior in him...I gotta give him that.

But I'm still peeved at Aaron Heilman.

Don't tell me I have no right.

And I'm peeved that on a night where the Mets hit three dingers in a row, they turn around and let them recover from it...while the Mets can't recover from any big hits that the Phillies get...especially against the Phillies bullpen. It's awful. And if the Mets can't hit it, they're awful too...at least they're awful right now. But it can't last, can it? Jose Valentin is back, albeit with a brace (and no mustache...don't mess with the karma gods, Jose...remember what happened when Keith Hernandez shaved his mustache in '87...damn these 1987 parallels)...and Shawn Green is coming back on Sunday. Lastings Milledge is even out of his boot. The troops are coming back...it's going to get better, right?

Terry Pendleton, please get out of my life...please?

Charity Starts At Home

So Pedro Martinez threw off of a mound today.

Looked good.

Felt good.

Unfortunately, Petey's return isn't going to get the Mets a key hit.

Oh the Phillies tried...tried their hardest to give the Mets a gift on Tuesday, with Pat Burrell running around to occupied bases, and negotiating the outfield with the dexterity of a water buffalo in a Home Depot. What do the Mets do? They hit the ball right at him, of course.

The Phillies even had one of their better fielders, Aaron Rowand, drop a ball with two outs in the ninth putting David Newhan in scoring position (it's the only way David Newhan is going to get into scoring position without being on a date these days). But that golden opportunity went to waste, and the Phillies won the game 4-2 thanks to a Chase Utley home run in the 11th off of Pedro Feliciano.

At least the almost impervious Feliciano and Joe Smith decided to have their blemishes in the same game, just like they did against the Brewers, instead of spreading them out. For that, we can be thankful. But the lineup is lacking that certain something that made them so good for the last two seasons. With Ben Johnson and Carlos Gomez in the lineup, it makes it easier for a 79 year old pitcher such as Jamie Moyer and others to tip toe his way through said lineup.

You'll have to excuse me while I order those hyperbaric chambers to be sent to the houses of Moises Alou and Shawn Green.

Get well soon.

Really soon.

Damn These Braves And Their Sunday Uniforms

Yeah, the crack staff couldn't come up with a more original title for you today. We all know that it isn't the Sunday uniforms, heck we've already lost to the Braves in their Monday-Saturday uniforms. But one would hope that if the Braves were to lose often enough in these things that look like Luden's Cherry cough drops, that they would stop wearing these loud things and burn the retinas of the entire city of Atlanta.

Ah, but these Braves fans wear rose colored glasses to lessen the effects of these stop sign uniforms, and unfortunately they enjoyed what they saw today, which was a 3-2 Mets loss at the Ted.

Deep down we knew. We knew that it wasn't going to be as easy as coming in to Atlanta, winning three straight, eating their food, dancing with their wives, and having Braves fans turn in their Sunday red jerseys and follow Jose Reyes to the home opener in New York like rats following the pied piper. Sure we were hoping for that. But deep down, with the changes that the Braves made to their bullpen (and the changes that were made to ours that were out of the Mets' control), that it wasn't going to be easy.

And we knew that the breakneck pace of the Mets offense couldn't last forever. After all, Jose Reyes can only do so much, finding a way to get on third base seemingly every trip to the plate. Somebody is going to have to drive him in. On Sunday, the Mets couldn't do it. Hence, two runs and no more. The Braves were one run better because Aaron Heilman couldn't find a way to get Jeff Francoeur, who's been known to swing at flying peanuts in the stands, out.

The Mets are in the midst of nine games which were labeled as tough. They're 4 up and 2 down so far. And guess who makes their way to Shea for the final three "tough games"? Yes, that would be the Philadelphia Phillies who, according to John Kruk, Steve Phillips, and Kevin Kennedy, are God's team. (Yes gentlemen, I'm like Evil Claus this season...I'm keeping track of who's naughty and who's nice.) The Phillies are 1-5, and are a Nationals team away from holding up the division. And that brings me to an e-mail I received from a fan who was touched by crime, and is making a connection to the Phillies:

"As a soothsayer and a talented hater, you are probably used to people coming to you with personal problems. Confident in this, I decided to let you know that my sister's car was recently stolen in downtown Philadelphia. Am I correct that this can and should be directed into hatred for the Phillies? Is it appropriate for me to encourage her to picture Chase Utley with a slim jim down her driver's side window? Cole Hamels piling into the passenger's seat for a joyride? Shane Victorino in the back, trying to talk Utley into doing burnouts in front of cops?" -B.K.

You're more correct than you know, B.K. As I was going through my Cold Case starter kit the other day, I came across a surveillance photo that was forwarded to me from one of my many moles. Turns out you're sister's car was stolen by members of the Phillies, but not who you might think. How do you think Aaron Rowand earned a living while he was out with his broken face?

As you can plainly see, Rowand is armed and dangerous with his sidekick Pat Burrell, as he does on most sliders on the inner half of the strike zone, acting as the lookout. Even with this evidence, your sister is going to have a hard time getting the charges to stick in the city of Philadelphia.

They're telling us that parking is going to be scarce at Shea Stadium for Monday's home opener. But what they're not telling you is the danger of having various members of the Phillies scour the parking lot looking for cars to jack. So remember that if you absolutely cannot take mass transit to Shea and must drive, use The Club as it is always the best deterrent to car theft by Aaron Rowand.

Happy Opening Day, y'all.

Your 2007 N.L. East Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Memo to Jimmy Rollins: Print this post.

Because maybe if it's on paper, it'll read that you're the favorites to win the division.

The Phillies are the chic, trendy pick to win the N.L. East this season. Now when I think chic and trendy, I don't think of a guy eating a cheesesteak from Tony Luke's with Cheez Wiz dripping down the corner of his mouth to his chin, finally settling on the second "L" on his Aaron Rowand "Phillies" jersey. But yes, picking the Phillies have become as trendy as chai tea and half caf lattes at Starbucks.

It probably has to do with America's love affair with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. It's merited. Chase Utley had a hitting streak of 35 games last season (snapped by the Mets in early August), and hit .309 in the three hole last season. Howard? He's a beast. Batting average: .313...OBP: .425...58 HR's and 149 RBI's are just monstrous numbers.

Yikes!

Jimmy Rollins, unfortunately for Mets fans, has the talent to match his bravado, hitting a decent .277 from the leadoff spot, with 25 HR's. The starting pitching is plentiful in Philadelphia, as there are six decent starters to choose from (a problem the Mets wish they had). And Aaron Rowand provides a heart and soul guy not seen in Philly since the days of Lenny Dykstra (yeah, that Lenny Dykstra).

But I'm about to lay the smack down as to why the Philadelphia Phillies will not only not win the division, but why they aren't even going to contend for the wild card...my top 10 reasons why the Phillies will come up empty:

1. The Bullpen: They got away with one last year. By all rights and purposes, Tom Gordon should have been reduced to fossil status last season. By the end of the year, he almost was...check out his ERA by month: 0.84, 2.19, 2.70, 4.63, 9.64 (in 4.2 August innings), and 3.60 in September. WHIP: 0.84, 1.05, 1.10, 1.63, 1.50, and 1.60. Batting average against: .114, .213, .229, .288, .263, .282. And outside of Ryan Madson, the names that Charlie Manuel has to choose from for middle relief don't exactly strike fear in my heart. Antonio Alfonseca? Holy extra digit, Batman! And do you realize that at press time, Matt Smith is the only lefthander in the Phils' pen?


2. The Starters: Let's not make these guys out to be the Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, and Avery of their time. Cole Hamels is studly, but may very well have a sophomore jinx tagged on him (I doubt it...but it is a possibility). The Met hating Brett Myers is good as long as he hits the strike zone as well as he hits his...(come on, you know where I'm going with that, right?) Freddy Garcia was a good pickup, but is he going to keep the ball in the yard (little known fact: Citizens Bank Park is the size of your average suburban backyard)? Is he going to stay healthy? Is his fastball ever going to rise above 85 mph? And how come we have to hear Julio Franco jokes from the peanut gallery known as the national baseball media, yet Jamie Moyer is simply known as crafty? He's old! Not quite as useless as Julio on the field, but almost as old. Adam Eaton, mark my words, will turn out to be the biggest waste of free agent dollars in the 2007 season. It's going to haunt the Phillies if this is the guy that causes Jon Lieber to be traded somewhere.


3. Pat Burrell: Burrell's numbers aren't bad as a whole (25HR's, 95 RBI's). But his .258 average and 131 K's are not what you want protecting Ryan Howard. You want more damning stats? RISP in 2006: .222 in 153 AB's. RISP with two outs: .167 in 78 at bats. Bases loaded: .240 with 17 RBI's in 25 at bats. These numbers are bound to hover around that area or worse considering that the Phillies have been trying to trade him all winter...and that the Phillies "faithful" have made Burrell their official whipping boy, as detailed by me here.


4. Charlie Manuel: Look at the managers in the National League east for a second. You have Manny Acta in Washington, Fredi Gonzalez in Florida, Bobby Cox in Atlanta, Willie Randolph here in New York, and Manuel. If you had to pick one manager to potentially have rumors of an in-season firing surrounding him who would you pick? Who would you pick if you had to lay $100 bucks on it? Acta? With the lack of talent surrounding him that would be cruel. Gonzalez? Would there be a worse P.R. move than firing Gonzalez after letting go of Joe Girardi? Cox? He's been in Atlanta since the civil war...you think he's going anywhere at this point? Randolph? We're talking about the Wilpons here, even Art Howe got one year longer than he should have...you think they're going to develop a short fuse all of a sudden with Willie? Guess who that leaves...


5. Wes Helms: If you put the Mets and Phillies infields side by side, you could make the argument that Howard, Utley, and Rollins cancel out the Mets trio of David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado. That leaves Wes Helms vs. Jose Valentin. That's a tough call, but considering that Valentin provides power to the lowest power position on the board, and that Wes Helms, who's never had more than 274 AB's in a season, I gotta say that Wes Helms has some proving to do. He hit .329 last year in 240 AB's, but also had 55 K's which would translate to about 120, 130 K's through a full season. Do you want Wes Helms in the same lineup with Pat Burrell?


6. 10,000: This team is headed towards a distinction known by no other franchise in professional sports history. They are 43 victories away from 10,000 losses in their history. Think about that...it's mind boggling! The San Francisco Giants, who have been playing baseball just as long as the Phillies, have a total of 8,702 losses. That's almost 1,300 less losses than Philadelphia. If the Phillies languish around .500, you don't think that 10,000 is going to hang over them like a scarlet number? (By the way, if the Phils start out 39-42, loss number 10,000 could come against the Mets on July 1st, Sunday night, on national television.


7. Karim Garcia: Come on. You expect me to take a team that has Karim Garcia on it seriously? Really? The Latino Bambino? Enemy of pizza delivery men everywhere? I frankly don't care if he makes the team or not. His aura already wafts through the city like that smell that hit NYC back in January.


8. Adam Eaton: I know I mentioned him way back in reason number two, but allow me to reiterate: This signing was so bad, it deserved it's own write-up. Adam Eaton got $24.5 million over three years for going 18-9 with a 4.55 ERA in 193 and 2/3's innings. Sound reasonable? Those were composite stats over the last two seasons. When Kris Benson got his "overpriced" contract, he at least pitched 200 innings in one season. And one more thing that may or may not have anything to do with anything, but Adam Eaton once landed on the disabled list...for stabbing himself in the stomach.


9. Pat Gillick: Genius my ass. His big plan was to trade Bobby Abreu to the Yankees for nothing, but have all this salary to improve the team. His big purchase with that extra money: Adam Eaton. And now, he's going to have to figure out what to do with Aaron Rowand. With trade rumors swirling around him, Gillick is going to have to hit a home run in dealing him. Does he get bullpen help? Does he get another starting outfielder back? Does Jon Lieber get traded for bullpen help? Is there any chance that Braden Looper can be returned to the Phillies in that deal so that he can log important innings for the Phils (insert evil laugh)?


10. John Kruk: He isn't going to make a throw, field a grounder, hit a double, or even put on a uniform (praise Buddha) for the team that he once starred for this season. But you know what he will do? Piss me off without fail. What that has to do with the Phillies finishing out of the money in 2007? I don't know. But John Kruk was a Phillie, he pisses me off, and he's already predicted the Phillies would win the division. I don't know how, but he will cause the Phillies demise...someway, somehow. This might be a good start:

Prediction: Third place, 82-80