Don't Go In There!

You know what's sad? Sad is when David Wright swings at an 0-1 changeup in the dirt, and FOX's friend Tim McCarver is telling us that he's going to get the exact same pitch at 0-2 (in between raindrops and declarations of love from Greta Van Susteren to Brett Favre, of course.) And here we are in front of our televisions knowing deep in the recesses of our hearts that the result is going to be the same ... that Wright is going to swing what he thinks is an oar but is actually a baseball bat at a changeup in the dirt, or off the dirt and up ... as it were.

Heck, even when the at-bat started you probably had a twinge of resignation in the pit of your stomach, giving in to the notion that David Wright, good as he is, isn't very good in the clutch, or at least as good as we'd like him or need him to be. It's like you're watching a horror flick from the 70's and you, your date, and everyone else in the theater knows that the cheerleader shouldn't enter the room with the bloody door knob. But in goes the cheerleader with everything going for her and before you know it, she's shish kebob with a sis-boom-bah.

David Wright has everything going for him too. He's rich, handsome, and as said to me today, he has a "Nintendo batting average." But he offered at a one-hop changeup at 0-1 as the tying run in the ninth. And when you do that, you might as well be wearing a letterman jacket looking around saying "Hello ... is anybody here ..." as J.P. Howell comes out with the hockey mask and the machete.

But hey, you can't blame him. After all, "clutch hit" sounds a lot like "cricket" when you say them really fast. Besides, where was the rest of the lineup? When 21 of the final 22 hitters go down without so much as a hint of concern, kinda makes you wonder if the team was trying to beat the Hamptons traffic.

At least Johan Santana was healthy enough to lose ... betcha he's hoping for an MRI right about now.

My Gritty Attempt At a World Series Preview

Yeah yeah, I know what you're thinking. "A stupid Mets fan previewing the World Series. Why should I even read it? He's going to pick the Rays and explain why to try to comfort his team's wounded fan base and tell them not to worry because the Rays are better ... well screw him! Go Phillies! Ya Gotta Believe because, well you know ... Why Can't Us? Rays are teh suxor Go Phillies!!!!!!1111!!!!!"

And that was just from John Kruk.

Avg. John Kruk IQ=37
Can you beat that score?

Well, Kruk did pick the Phillies to win this series (along with his cohort Steve Phillips), and that tells me that this is a great time to help combat a bad economy and bet your house and your life savings on the Tampa Bay Rays. I mean, if those two are picking the Phillies, that makes the Rays as close to a mortal lock as you can get, no?

I'd leave it at that, except that I now find out that Peter Gammons has also picked the Phillies ... and that worries me because who doesn't like and respect Peter Gammons? So I'm going to step out of my Metstradamus persona, just for a moment, and be an outside observer who has watched more playoff baseball this season than any Met fan should have to endure (I knew all of you wouldn't, so someone had to. I took your bullet ... I took all your bullets.)

Here's the series from my perspective: Look, people who are picking the Phillies point to the bullpens. Yes, overall the Phils have a stronger bullpen right now due to the struggles of Grant Balfour and our old friend Dan Wheeler. Fair. But, for the Rays to be successful in the late innings, it's the lefties that are going to be successful for the Rays to win, and not necessarily the righties. And for the Rays, the lefthanders are pitching some great ball between J.P. Howell (whom I would love to be a Met next year but I know isn't going to happen so don't even get your hopes up kids) and former numero uno draft pick David Price.

People will point to the Game 5 debacle as to why the Rays can't possibly win this series. I point to that game as the reason they will win this series. What Joe Maddon learned during Game 5 is that he blew it not having lefties available to pitch to David Ortiz in the 7th inning of that game (he homered off Balfour) and J.D. Drew in the 8th (he homered off Wheeler), while having Price stuck in his holster. Maddon realized that if Price is on the postseason roster, why not use him ... especially with the 96 mph stuff he has? So in comes Price to close out the ALCS and now the entire planet will realize just how good Price is. He may not be the official closer this series, but if the lineup turns over to Utley, Burrell, Howard in the ninth, you'll see either Price or J.P. Howell ... and Wheeler will save the games where the ninth inning features Pedro Feliz, Carlos Ruiz, and the like. It'll be the quality lefties that will force Charlie Manuel to either empty his bench earlier than he wants to, or be forced to hit Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs to hit against the Howells and the Prices of the world.

Look at that smirk to your right. Men with smirks that pronounced really outgha be punched. (Boy, Metstradamus ... you've had violent tendencies lately, what's up with that?)

But here's fact: If the Phillies are to have any chance in this series, Cole Hamels needs to pitch three times. As of right now, Hamels is only slated to go in Games 1 and 5. Okay, if you want to flirt with disaster. Because let's lay it out in a nutshell: Cole Hamels is a straight beast. He's their best starter by about 3.5 miles. To not have him available in a Game 7 is murderous especially when you consider how the matchups play out.

Right now, Met-hater Brett Myers is due to pitch in Games 2 and 6 in Tampa. During the playoffs, Myers has been a cult hero for outdueling CC Sabathia, and morphing into Mike Schmidt against the Dodgers. But those games were in Philadelphia. Myers will have to pitch two games on the road where he has a 6.21 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 16 road starts this season. To be fair, most of that non-success came before his month long odyssey to find himself in the minors, but even career wise there's a spike in Myers' ERA, WHIP, and opponents average on the road as opposed to home.

I have a feeling that if the Phils find themselves down 2-1 headed into Game 4, they may rethink this and go with Hamels on Sunday. If that happens, we've got a series. But there's a reason that teams with more rest heading into the Series get crushed: Baseball is a game of timing. It's not like football which is a game which is as much about brute strength and force as it is about timing ... that's why top seeds in the NFL have a huge advantage coming off a bye week ... it's essential to be more rested in a game where bumps and bruises are a way of life.

That advantage doesn't exist in baseball, which relies on routine and regular work. The Phillies will head into the Series on six days rest, and now all of a sudden they get thrown into action against Scott Kazmir?

(Pauses to mutter a silent curse under his breath towards Jim Duquette regarding Kazmir.)

Take for example Ryan Howard, who hit a quiet .300 during the LCS, and who is a notoriously slow starter. Now you're asking him to face Scott Kazmir cold. Not an optimal situation for a guy who the Phillies really need to step up.

So my official prediction is Rays in 6. And now I step back into my persona to tell Mets fans that after reading that, it really is okay to come out from your hiding place. It's not going to get any worse. The Curse of William Penn will live on. So it's safe to find seats on the Rays bandwagon (preferably seats that keep us out of the way so that the real Rays fans continue to get prime viewing areas) and watch the Series. And if Rays fans have a problem with that, all I can say is that hey, you owe us one.

After all, we did provide you Kazmir in exchange for a tuna fish sandwich.

Omar Minaya: Behind The Blow

Well, another red letter season has come do an end (and that red letter is F ... I'll let you figure out what that stands for.) And believe it or not, I still have s**t to say. The following is one in a series of random stuff I'm throwing against the wall about person or persons of my choosing. These are your New York Mets: Behind the Blow.

I'm not sure there's a more polarizing figure on the Met landscape than Omar Minaya. And I'm also not sure there's a more scrutinized GM in baseball right now either. You love him, you hate him. And after two straight collapses, my guess is that most of you hate him.

There's a lot of angst over Minaya getting a four-year contract ... announced officially after the season was over but leaked before Collapse II, which made it all the more painful for fans to swallow. My response to that is not to get worked up over the length of the contract. It's not good business practice to have anyone ... especially Minaya ... in a position where he needs to make moves with the spectre of not being employed next season looming. That's a recipe for disaster, because Minaya needs to always think "long term" with this organization while he's there. When you see guys like Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson be merely the latest in a significant line of Red Sox prospects who come up from the minor leagues and make huge contributions immediately, you wonder where that's been in Minaya's tenure.

At the risk of sounding like an apologist, some of that has started to happen. Both Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans have come up and helped the team in varying degrees ... Murphy looks like a keeper, and at the very worst, Evans could be trade bait to help some various holes (cough ... bullpen ... cough) that the Mets have. Whatever you believe about Minaya not being able to shore up the bullpen at the deadline, the alternative would have been to blow young players like Murphy, Evans, Eddie Kunz and the like to acquire from a limited pool of relievers including Jon Rauch and Arthur Rhodes (Rauch was horrible with Arizona and Rhodes ... incredibly ... was outstanding for Florida in his 13 innings. Though with the Mets he probably would have been terrible ... and he's still 38.) And then how would you have felt? The problem in 2007 was that the team was too old and, yes, bored. Minaya has seemingly reversed course and has relied more on the farm system. There's still a long way to go with the farm system, but Murphy and Evans are a start. And those calling for Minaya's head should take a look at the big picture and realize that even with all of Omar's faults, the organization is in significantly better shape now than it was in 2004.

Have we all forgotten 2004? I mean, sure ... you may complain about Carlos Delgado. But would you rather have Wilson Delgado?

But now that the season is over, and seemingly more relievers would probably be available, it would behoove Minaya to make sure that bullpen looks completely different than it did last year, four-year deal or no four-year deal ... because a third disaster will likely mean his head. So they have to pay him to do nothing for three seasons. With all the money they're getting selling their championship banners, foul poles, dugouts, and napkin holders, the Wilpons will barely feel the sting. Let's put it this way, when the first reliever comes into the game at Citi Field, he shouldn't just be announced, we'd better see Ty Pennington with a megaphone yelling "drop that curtain".

In other words, there had better be a makeover ... and it had better be extreme.

But here's what worries me about Omar Minaya and the Mets bullpen ... for that matter, it's the same thing that worries me about Omar Minaya and the rest of the roster: It's his penchant for falling in love with reclamation projects. There are only so many times that turning to the likes of Jose Valentin, Orlando Hernandez, and Fernando Tatis are going to work ... and when they work, the payoff has a limited shelf life. Combine that with the soundbite that came from Minaya (or perhaps it was Jerry Manuel but it's indicative of the same problem) when asked about getting Frankie Rodriguez:

"We're going to be creative with the bullpen."

Creativity takes many forms. Matt Groening is creative. Mozart was creative. So was Roman Polanski. Polanski is also a fugitive from justice for having intercourse with a minor. If you give a five-year-old a crayon and a wall, he can be creative too. But all you get are scribbles on a wall. I got a computer to be creative. But instead of writing the Great American Novel, all I could come up with was a blog where I make jokes about Wilson Delgado.

Creativity could be a good thing with the bullpen. Maybe Minaya will target guys like J.P. Howell from the Rays. Maybe he'll force Billy Beane to take a reasonable offer for Huston Street. Perhaps a guy like Frank Francisco from Texas will be available. Maybe Brian Fuentes will be willing to come to New York and close if K-Rod takes his 62 saves elsewhere. There's a whole host of guys out there who have been successful in the major leagues in the past six months that could be had at the right price. But what worries me is that the Omar Minaya I know has already given orders to the clubhouse staff to sew "Urbina" on a jersey for the first official news conference from Citi Field.

Because as you know, incarcerated relievers are as creative as it gets.