L > W: Snoop Knows Math

Snoop Manuel knows his math. And with this limited time offer, he'll teach it to you for the low low price of your soul!

"I think in evaluation of any manager, you go on wins and losses. And my losses were much greater than the wins." -Snoop Manuel, on his job performance in 2009

Sometime before the end of the season, Manuel hopes to recite the formula for earned run average without looking at flash cards. It's going to be an exciting day. Don't miss out!

The Mets lost to the Braves for the 405th straight time on Wednesday after Bobby Cox announced he was only going to manage the Braves for one more season. When the Mets basically made the same announcement regarding Manuel, the Mets responded by losing four straight, and 22 of their next 30.

Obviously, the Mets could use a break ... and Snoop conceded that a lot of players could use some time off. Don't worry, there's a whole lot of it coming in just a week and a half.

"I definitely need a break, a chance to clear my head and come back next year ready to go. I think any way you look at it, I’ve had a bad year. I’ll try to learn from it and come back next year and set even higher goals than I’ve had this year. And hopefully, I can achieve them." Mike Pelfrey, on how the offseason can't arrive fast enough.

Mike's had a bad year when judged on the Manuel equation: L > W. Of course it's a derivative of the more complicated equation:

L = [AVG/LOB x SUCK-INJURIES] / [(WALKS+DOGHOUSE X 2) / MURPHY - PEREZ] X FARM SYSTEM

Got all that? Good. Tomorrow, we'll identify objects.

Frenchy Flag

We can deduct two things about this Church for Francoeur trade:

The first thing we know now is that the white flag has been raised on the 2009 season. Because for an offense that has just been shut out for the third time this week, the remedy for that most certainly is not to trade a .280/.332/.375/.707 hitter for a .250/.282/.352/.634 hitter. Screw sabermetrics, this one is basic math.

And we also now know that at some point during this 2009 season, the Mets will be no-hit.

Yes, I believe this is an awful trade. But I really want to try to take more of a pragmatic, even handed view with this. For example, at first sight I went and blasted the Carlos Delgado trade, and blasted the original Ryan Church trade. I've since bought merchandise featuring both players. So I have to be just a little careful.

We all knew a Church trade was inevitable. Honestly, I thought that Church might have weathered the trade winds since he got this far, but the trade doesn't surprise me apart from the destination. But I can't get over the fact that Church has just been so mismanaged in his entire time here that it's a shame how the Mets completely wasted him. From the concussion misdiagnosis to being benched after starting the season on a hot streak to get Gary Sheffield at-bats, to putting him in center field for no real good reason except maybe to showcase his invented versatility for the Braves. And you know with a manager that doesn't hate him and will play him, there's no reason to think that Church isn't going to finally find a groove ... just in time for when the Mets are in Turner Field to face the Braves after the break.

"Shocker. Came out of nowhere. The good thing is I get to play these guys next week. They're going to have to change up a lot of signs. I know everything," Church said. "I'll definitely fill them in." -Ryan Church, after sending a text to Larry Jones and officially joining forces with the enemy

Signs? You need baserunners for signs to matter, and the Mets can't spell "baserunner". Get ready for Church to go 19-for-21 next week with five HR's.

As for Frenchy, he was in a very similar situation as Church was ... at odds with the manager and GM before getting his wish and being traded. And the rift between Francoeur and Braves management must have been wider than the gulf between Church and Snoop. To get the Braves to not only trade a former big-time prospect within the division, but an Atlanta native to the Mets is really something. Finally, a river wide enough.

Francoeur, just like Church, will come to a team that appreciates him (for now), and will play him constantly. That might not be a good thing. The Mets hope that the change of scenery will help Frenchy (and we saw how well that worked for Wade Redden), but it might be a case where the mind is willing but the batting eye is just too anxious. I think he will be just as motivated as Church will be to stick it to his former team, but for Francoeur to be successful his whole approach has to be revamped. And it's a little too late in the season to expect that 80 pitches in 80 seconds drill to do any good this year. So guess what: Francoeur is going to be a horror show this season.

The hope is for next season and beyond. And that's a hope against hope. The one thing I can say is that at least ... at least this could be a sign that the Mets are thinking about fielding a younger, more athletic team in the foreseeable future instead of rummaging through the bargain bin at Target looking for used tubes of toothpaste and impressing people by actually getting toothpaste out of them. But think about it this way: If they managed to mismanage a veteran like Church, how do you think they're going to turn a young Jeff Francoeur into the feared middle of the order hitter he was destined to be not long ago? Do you really have confidence that this is going to happen?

Bottom line: It didn't have to come to this. Even if 2009 is a wash, Church could have been a piece of the puzzle in 2010 and 2011 when everyone was healthy again. But because of Snoop's puzzling disinterest in him and because of all of the other stuff that Church had to go through with the concussions and what not, he was bound to be traded. Frenchy, who Buster Olney thought was a candidate to be non-tendered at the end of the season (seriously ... even Olney was flustered when the news broke of the trade ... that's how bizarre it is) had better find himself before 2011 when he becomes a free agent, and the Mets had better find a way to make sure he becomes the ballplayer he has the potential to be. This means not benching him in favor of Fernando Tatis after Francoeur gets three hits the night before. Or else there will be plenty of blame to be thrown around for 18 months of Ryan Church's baseball life (and our collective baseball watching lives) wasted by people with a hidden agenda.

And apropos of nothing, but fitting nonetheless, don't you find it ironic that Church's last official act as a Met is to join his new team by flying to Denver?

P.S. The Mets lost. Bronson Arroyo strikes again. Angel Pagan isn't the savior that the nation so desperately cries out for. Just another day in Flushing.

Scrambled Hubris

Hey, the Braves are in town. And as such, I think it's time to revisit something:

"I've got to say that there was something particularly satisfying about taking two from the Mets and their two best pitchers right after Metsradamus dismissed us as not even in contention for winning the DIVISION, much less anything else. You said we would be lucky to break .500 (...) The Mets still can't win at Turner Field. The Mets still can't beat the Braves. Order has been restored to the baseball universe." -Anonymous Braves fan, April 7th, 2008

So how's that baseball universe treatin' ya, buddy? Seem a little disoriented? Of course you do. Now you know how Ryan Church feels. Yeah, remember him? He of the late slide that callously caused your shortstop to miss a couple of games.

Oh, by the way, Yunel Escobar has played 63 games since Church's slide. Church has played 15 ... and for a couple of months, he couldn't differentiate eggs from light sockets.

But his slide was dirty. Yeah, our bad.

But hey Anonymous, you'll always have those two games in April. They'll keep you warm during those cold winter months. Now go trade Will Ohman to us for a box of hammers.*

*Assuming your true identity is Frank Wren.

Plop Plop Fizz Fizz, Oh What A Disgrace It Is!

All you need to know about today's 1-0 loss to the Washington Nationals is that before the game, there were some free giveaways to be had outside Shea. Were they fun things like free gum, or powdered iced tea samples? Guess again.

That's right: Alka Seltzer.

Is this a team that knows its fan base or is this a team that knows its fan base?

Because somehow they knew that we'd need it today. Somehow, they knew that Mike Pelfrey was going to no-hit the Nationals for six innings (until Aaron Flippin' Boone struck again) and yet still be denied of a victory. They knew that the Mets lineup was going to accelerate the rehabilitation of Jason Bergmann, making his first start since going on the disabled list this season with an ERA of 11.68.

Let me repeat that because I find it vaguely important:

ELEVEN FLIPPIN' POINT SIXTY FLIPPIN' EIGHT!!!

They knew that Jose Reyes, whose baseball IQ is dropping by the minute, would try to take third base on a Luis Castillo sacrifice bunt, thinking that Ryan Zimmerman was too far off the bag covering the bunt to get back to third ... only to look like a defensive back burned by the touchdown combination of Aaron Boone to Cristian Guzman. Or was that Tony Romo to Terrell Owens?

They knew that Willie Harris was going to continue to try to muscle his way into the pantheon of Met killers solely on defensive efforts. Remember last season when Harris stole a win for the Braves against Carlos Delgado? Remember last night's great defensive play too? He did it again today with a diving catch down the left field line for the first out in the ninth inning off the bat of Ryan Church.

They knew that Carlos Beltran was going to break for home on a Carlos Delgado line out to first base with one out, leaving him a dead duck ... somehow ... on a throw across the diamond to end the game on an inexplicable double play. (What was that I was saying about baseball IQ?) You know, the thing that the Mets had in abundance two seasons ago, but seems to be lacking with pretty much the same group of players two seasons later? Has everybody gone senile?

No, they've just gone crazy ... at least Billy Wagner did after the game at a group of reporters:

"Wagner looked over toward the area of first baseman Carlos Delgado's locker and blurted: "Someone tell me why the (expletive) you're talking to the closer. I didn't even play. They're over there, not being interviewed. ... I got it. They're gone. (Expletive) shocker."

So here's the deal with this: First, Wagner goes postal on Oliver Perez. Then, Willie Randolph says "oh, no no no no no no no no no no no, we need to keep those things in house." Sure, leave it to the leader, right? One voice representing the club, right? Except that last night, where was Willie Randolph when Moises Alou was getting ejected by Dana DeMuth? I'll tell you where he was: He was on the top step of the dugout under the false impression that everybody was going to be impressed and taken aback with how stoic he is and how cool and calm he is. Willie thought that DeMuth was going to reflect on what a bad thing he did making Willie stand still and seethe for five seconds.

Wrong.

So today, with Randolph obviously unwilling to take a bullet for his players (see: Marlon Anderson getting suspended for a game last season because Randolph couldn't get his stoic butt out to the field to defend him), of course Billy Wagner is going to pop off. Because nobody else obviously will!!! So in that respect, when Wagner rips his 'mates, he may be ripping his manager in the process whether he realizes it or not.

Look, you guys and girls have read me long enough to know the way I feel: that unless the manager is of the Art Howe naptime variety, it's generally the players who win and lose ballgames. I still feel that way. But when Billy Wagner is continuously popping off and feeling as if he's the one that has to stir things up and bring things to light in the clubhouse, that's an indictment of the manager. No, I don't expect Randolph to kick a chair or turn over a buffet table for the pure sake of doing it. Grown men see through that. But going out to cause a ruckus with an umpire to defend your player is something different. Players notice that, both ways. And heaven help me for what I'm about to say, but here goes: how do you think Bobby Cox has lasted so long? I'll tell you how: His players love him! And part of the reason is that he'll defend them even if they don't deserve defending!

Think about it: Besides the little school girl fight that Larry Jones and John Smoltz had recently, how many times have you seen the Bobby Cox led Braves go through something like that? Now how many times have you seen it in the Mets clubhouse in the last two weeks? With a manager, it's worth noting, who was tough when it came to no beards in the clubhouse three years ago, and now only seems to be tough on Oliver Perez?

I've held off as long as I could. I tried and I tried and I tried. But it's time for me to acknowledge that today might be the first day of the rest of Willie Randolph's life. Nobody in that clubhouse has said anything bad publicly about Willie's managing. I'm not even going to assume that anybody is even thinking anything bad about Randolph. But actions, as you well know, speak louder than words and thoughts. The actions I saw today tell me that a new voice needs to speak louder than Willie Randolph is willing to speak.

Maybe it's time to take that Alka Seltzer to neutralize this sick feeling I have about this team. That and the bucket of chicken wings from the Diamond Club today. Plop plop, fizz fizz ...

Old Men Need Oxygen

But when the old men need oxygen because they're sprinting around the bases at a high rate of speed, that's a good thing. It was certainly a good thing for Damion Easley today. Unfortunately, Easley (and Moises Alou, who only had to travel 180 feet) needed to be hosed down after his jaunt around the bases on his inside the park home run in the seventh inning. But fortunately...he hit an inside the park home run in the seventh inning.

(Give Alou a break though...poor guy has been doing nothing but running into walls and running into Lastings Milledge non-stop for the last 48 hours, yet still had the energy to get three hits in the last two days.)

It's fun to have games like the one we had this afternoon, a 12-4 victory over Milwaukee with one of our plethora of fifth starters going...this time Brian Lawrence, who got his first win since Game 3 of the 1979 World Series (that's exaggeration speak for August 16th, 2005). Not only is it fun because of the bushel full of runs scored, but because the other team is having fights in the dugout instead of the Mets, which is not a good sign for the other team, but a good sign for us. (Heck, I don't know another team that wouldn't fight after giving up an RBI ground rule double to Jorge Sosa...I would want to kill my manager after that, too.)

Lawrence will be cheered for his efforts today, a five inning outing in which he struck out three and didn't walk anyone, giving up three runs. It's all about perspective, as Mike Pelfrey had a similar outing against Washington last Saturday, giving up three runs in six innings, walking one and striking out five. Pelfrey, with his electric but straight fastball, was booed off the mound. While Lawrence, with his surgically repaired slider, gets an A for effort.

Lawrence was outpitched by a third of an inning. No, not by opposing starter Chris Capuano, but by Pedro Martinez down in Port St. Lucie. Martinez threw 50 strikes out of 67 pitches, and said that he felt better as he went along (while only hitting 86-88 on the radar gun so far). It's still a long road ahead for Pedro, but at least he's actually on the interstate, and not off the beaten path. And yes, I will still act as if Pedro does not exist until he takes his act to a major league stage...only for my own good.

I would also prefer to act as if this new and improved Braves lineup with Mark Teixeira doesn't exist either, but unfortunately it does. At this time, they have wiped out a 5-1 Astros lead with relative ease, proving that this is going to be a lineup that the Mets are going to have to reckon with the rest of the season. Which is bad because now that TBS has decided to put a microphone near Chatterbox Bobby Cox in the dugout, his voice is starting to grate on me like nails on a chalkboard. And I'm about to put my head through a damn wall. And the more runs the Braves score, the more I'm going to want to bleed through my eyes. This can't last.

And Willie Harris is starting to really get on my nerves (lousy Woody Williams...)