Friday, July 29, 2005

Handicapping The Rumors:

This isn't scientific by any means, but with all the dizzying rumors out there, sometimes it helps to step back and try to organize. This won't be easy, and the lines are all thrown out of whack with the Manny Ramirez developments, but here we go (and as always, this is only an exhibition, not a competition. So wagering.)

Alfonso Soriano: Line set at 4-1. With the Phil Nevin for Chan Ho Park trade official, the Rangers now absolutely have to get pitching...and this just might be the trade that drives Soriano's price down, because now the Rangers need pitching as much if not more than the Mets need hitting. Zambrano, Petit, and a lower rung pitcher not named Gaby might make this happen.

Daryle Ward/Jose Mesa: Line set at 5-1. I'm setting the line at 4-1 even though people in the know seem to think these players are the most likely scenario...this deal, in my very humble opinion, is the type of trade that would be the next Jason Bay type deal, where a low level prospect turns into the 2006 rookie of the year. With the way the Mets are playing at this very moment, would it be worth it? Benson and Zambrano were a more useful tandem than Ward and Mesa may turn out to be.

Aubrey Huff: Line set at 8-1. Considering that the Red Sox are going after Huff hard, I'm raising this line...

Danys Baez: Line set at 6-1. ...while lowering this one. The only issue now is Chuck Lamar and his outrageous demands. It looks as if Omar is holding strong in terms of not giving up too much.

Jorge Julio: Line set at 15-1. With Mike Cameron slumping, this could be the deal that happens, and it makes sense. (Since Larry Bigbie has been wheeled to Colorado for Eric Byrnes, the line goes up a little bit.)

Sean Casey: Line set at 20-1. Casey is the same type of hitter Mientkiewicz is, and even though logic says that a spray hitter would do well in a bigger ball park, Mientkiewicz killed that theory, so logic also says that Casey isn't coming to Shea. We all know that Logic usually takes a vacation around the end of July.

Eddie Guardado: Line set at 25-1. The Mets are in need of bullpen help, but right now they're more in need of a stick. Guardado, at 34, is a little aged for Minaya's liking, but may have a few years left in them. I think Minaya would bring up Richie Sexson in any Guardado talks, which with Sexson's numbers this season would end the conversation.

J.T. Snow: Line set at 30-1. Snow has been mentioned, but is too old to fit into Omar Minaya's "win now and in the future" policy. Snow, as mentioned in the article, would rather back up Lance Niekro than pick up and move.

Richie Sexson: Line set at 40-1. Sexson, even during a horrid season by the Mariners, is putting up big numbers in a pitchers park. There are a lot of other parts that Seattle is looking to move which would build a future, and hopefully for the M's a near future, built around Sexson. I don't think he'll be moved.

Adam Dunn: Line set at 100-1. If the Reds trade Dunn, they're dumber than we all thought. Many will say they're not that bright to begin with though so anything is possible. They're going to ask for the world. But if any player is worth the world...

Manny Ramirez: Line set at 125-1. Late word lowers the line, and the line drops by the second...but considering the complexity of the deal, it's still the longest shot on the board. The Mets, Red Sox, and Devil Rays have until noon on Saturday to get the trade done. If this deal doesn't go through, these odds will go dramatically down during the off season, when the Mets may very well get him. No longer will I say that there's no way the Red Sox will move him while they are in first place, because obviously they will. But they stand a better chance justifying a Manny trade to their fans in the off season. Besides, there is no place in left field for Manny to get away and get some "relief".

Editors note: Now that the Manny trade has gone past the rumor stage and now in the "deadline stage", the Red Sox basically HAVE to trade him now. Don't be surprised if it is still not until the off season though...there are way too many moving parts.

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