Lowe Ball (Cheesy Title, I Know)

I gotta hand it to the Mets: Only they can find a way to be screwed by Carlos Silva without even signing him.

Derek Lowe has invoked the name of Silva as some sort of garlic clove that the great Wilpon vampire is supposed to be scared of. Lowe turned down a 3 year $36 million deal because that would be the same money at one less year than Silva got from Seattle.

(Silva, to refresh your memory, went 4-12 with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP for Seattle in 2008 after signing that deal. In the offseason, tragedy struck when Silva was eaten by Andruw Jones.)
So Lowe has gone from wanting Barry Zito money to settling for treading water at Silva level. Now if you remember, I thought the Zito thing was bizarre. And I realize that nobody wants to give in to Scott Boras. But the Wilpons are rolling the dice here. They're using the big bad economy to try to make the market work for them. Fine. But to someone who still remembers the Angels swooping in and getting Vladimir Guerrero, I still worry about somebody making a late run at Lowe and getting him for $45 million for three years. The difference between Zito and Silva is great. But the difference between Carlos Silva and making Derek Lowe realistically happy isn't that large ... certainly not that large for a team with a new stadium and a regional sports network.

Lowe will probably not find a better deal in the northeast, as he wants. But the longer this goes, the greater a chance a team will say screw it, and scrounge up some pennies and make a better offer. It happened with Guerrero, and it certainly happened with Mark Teixeira. If it happens with Derek Lowe and the dice come up craps, then the Mets will have to do something creative ... like trade for Carlos Silva.

Creativity ... not for everyone.

From The Makers Of Kazuo: It's The Other Matsui

It's a comment worth spotlighting:

"What about making a deal with the Spanks for H. Matsui? He's in the final year of his contract and he's due $13 million for the season. The guy is not the feared hitter that Manny is, but he's the anti-Manny--personality wise--a true professional. And if he's healthy enough, you can pretty much count on him to hit around .300 with a .370 or so OBP and drive in 90-100 rbis. Unfortunately he bats lefty. If the Mets were willing to take on half of that $13 million for next season, he could probably be had for a mid-level prospect I would think. Nady would be better, but we'd probably have to give up more to get him cuz he's younger and he's getting a lot less $$$. It's a risk of course but it might be better than say committing more money and years to a player like Abreu or Dunn. Wilpons would have the added bonus of money from the Japanese media and fans." - Chris in Japan

If the Mets want a bat for the outfield to lengthen the lineup, you could do worse than Hideki Matsui. Don't believe me? The Mets apparently tested that theory by looking into trading for Andruw Jones.

Hideki is interesting, because of all the Yankees hitters I hate to see up with the game on the line, Matsui might be Yankee Enemy No. 1 ... yes, even over Derek Jeter ... that's how clutch he's been against the Mets. And isn't that something that the Mets are apparently looking for?

And that whole deal with the bonus money from Japanese endorsements, I don't think that's how you should run a baseball team ... trading for people that will bring people through the gates regardless of how they fit in the lineup or in the room. But with Bernie Madoff bilking the Wilpons out of the Gross National Income of a small country, there's no doubt that this is something the Wilpons would consider (I'm not that naive.) The Yankees apparently can afford to lose that advertising since they're paying billions of dollars for CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.

Ultimately, I don't think it happens because as of now, he still has a place on the Yankees as part time DH, rest of the time left fielder. As long as he has a regular place in the Yankee lineup, there's no way he'd be wheeled to the Mets for a mid-level prospect. And I'm not sure the Mets would be willing to take on another injury risk to play the outfield (although the mere fact that they discussed Jones would blow that theory to bits.)

But you guys are not only thinking, you're coming up with ideas more creative than trading for Andruw Jones. You're all smarter than a fifth grader (and the fifth graders are smarter than me), and I'm proud of you.

Ownership Has Its Privileges

It's only fair that the Mets opened a can against Brad Penny today. After all, if Hong-Chih Kuo is going to continue his domination of all things blue with orange trim, then the Mets, by all rights and purposes, have earned the right to continue to take Brad Penny out behind the shed.

Going into today, Penny was a career 5-11 against the Mets with a 5.66 ERA. You can make that 5-12 now after today's 12-1 Mets pounding to salvage the Dodger series and even the road trip at 3-3.

The rout really took shape when Penny threw inside at Ryan Church in the fifth inning and nicked his jersey, prompting a warning for both benches which stemmed from John Maine coming in high and hard to Jeff Kent before striking him out (The practical point of view is that Maine's pitches just had an inordinate amount of movement and just got away from him. My point of view, of course, is that Jeff Kent deserved it. It took 15 years, but it's about time he ate dust.) But Penny wasn't retaliating ... he was just plain wild, walking two in the inning which sandwiched John Maine's two run single and led to his demise.

Maine, on the other hand, had a brilliant game (three hits, eight and 1/3) which underscores the reason why ... as frustrating as the Mets are going to be this season, are going to be in it until the end: and that is because Maine and Johan Santana are going to keep them there.

(Side note: If we've learned anything from this Dodger series it's this: Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, and Aaron Heilman shouldn't feel too bad. I can't imagine any of those players has been booed as constantly or as vociferously as Andruw Jones. And with good reason: He was completely useless this series ... and from all accounts, he's been that way all season. Of course he waits until he leaves the division to reach this level of sedentary. Lucky us.)

Your 2008 N.L. East Preview: Part One

Today, we begin our preview of the National League East by looking at what should constitute the bottom half of the division.

It's easy to dismiss the Florida Marlins as 2008's permanent resident of the N.L. East cellar. After all, their best two players are in Detroit gearing up for a World Series run, while the average age of the Marlins roster is the lowest in the league at 12 (it would have been 7, except for Luis Gonzalez.) But remember that we all had the Nationals as 120 game losers last year (not me ... I had them at a much more reasonable number, although it was still well off). And on paper, the Marlins have a better starting staff coming into '08 than the Nationals had going into '07, with former New Jersey Net Mark Hendrickson (who was once posterized by Michael Jordan), Scott Olsen (who was once posterized by the Miami Police), and super-phenom Andrew Miller leading the way.

The Marlins strength this season might be in the bullpen, where Kevin Gregg was a pleasant surprise as their closer last season after Jorge Julio took another step towards oblivion. The combination of Gregg, Matt Lindstrom (who will continue his assault of the Mets while Jason Vargas is on the shelf for four months), Taylor Tankerseley and Justin Miller had 272 K's in 260 innings pitched. And don't forget Logan Kensing, who was injured for much of '07.

And the Fish will be able to hit some too. They finished a respectable sixth in the N.L. with 790 runs scored, and making their returns will be guys like Hanley Ramirez (who as far as I can fathom, still hates the Mets and everything about them), Dan Uggla, and Josh Willingham. The problem is who's not returning: Miguel Cabrera and his 119 RBI last season. His replacement will be Jorge Cantu, who's going to have to close his eyes really hard and pretend it's 2005 when he drove in 117 runs for the Devil Rays. And as we all know, it's hard to hit a baseball with your eyes closed.

What's going to sink the Marlins to the bottom of the standings is the fact that the top three in their rotation just isn't going to be able to give the bullpen enough quality starts to try and finish off. And the fourth and fifth starters are going to wind up being Rick VandenHurk and Ricky Nolasco. Uh-oh.

While I'm not ready to peg the Marlins for 120 losses, I am ready to buy a housewarming gift for their permanent '08 residence in the cellar. I hear lava lamps are making a comeback.

Marlins: 64-98

***

The Mets this offseason have become the Ronald Reagan of baseball ... supplying weapons to the enemy. Between Paul Lo Duca and Lastings Milledge, the Washington Nationals scare the ever loving life out of me. (Did you know that Milledge already has a fan club in DC?)

Besides motivation, the Nats have all the ingredients for a surprise season. New ballpark. Solid manager. And most importantly, they have one of the budding young superstars in the game in Ryan Zimmerman. The Washington Nationals could contend into September. But there are some questions for me concerning the Nats:

• There are some divergent personalities in that clubhouse ... and as Bobcat Goldthwait once said: "Either this is really going to work or this is really gonna suck." Will they come together and have slumber parties where they break out their fuzzy pajamas, roast marshmallows and sing campfire songs? Can Elijah Dukes, Paul Lo Duca, Dmitri Young, Lastings Milledge, and Ronnie Belliard et al share a clubhouse without driving each other crazy?


• And speaking of Lo Duca, you had Brian Schneider guiding a very patchwork starting pitching staff towards a respectable season in 2007. So what will a change in catchers do? Is Lo Duca's fiery style what guys like Matt Chico, Jason Bergmann, and Tim Redding need to take the next step towards respectability? Or will this pitching staff prove to have a need for Schneider's easy hand and fall apart under Lo Duca?


• How are the Nationals going to turn their extra first baseman (and as of right now it's Dmitri Young) into some parts that will improve the club like, say, starting pitching? And can they even do it? Young hovered close to 300 pounds this spring, and Nick Johnson outplayed him in the spring by a large margin. Can Dmitri even bring back anything in a trade? Or will he just be put on waivers so that the Braves can pick him up?

Nationals: 80-82

***

Speaking of the Braves picking guys up on waivers, I have to be really careful here to not assume that Atlanta snaring Ruben Gotay is going to shift the balance of power in the National League East, or change what I'm about to write. My pessimistic self is tempted to do it, but I'll refrain. Here's why:

I think the Atlanta Braves are overrated.

(Blesses self and makes sure lightning doesn't strike him)

There's no reason to cry and whine about how everybody and their mother is picking the Braves to win the N.L. East this season. It only seems that way. The fact of the matter is that there are are plenty of people out there picking the Mets. But there are an awful lot of pundits that are picking the Atlanta Braves. I understand why ... it's because there are a lot of people who look at the names on the jerseys and want to believe that it's 1995.

And yes, Mark Teixeira is damn good. Anyone who's in his prime and shows an ability to go .300/.400/.500 more than once is deserving of your praise and your awe. And Tim Hudson is back to being a legitimate number one starter. Players like Chipper Jones and John Smoltz have hit those kinds of numbers often. And that's the problem. The Braves are a team that collectively have hit their ceiling. There aren't a lot of guys that are primed to improve by a significant amount, while with all of the old/injury prone guys that the Braves are counting a large amount on, there's potential for disaster. Let me ask you this: If the Mets were headed into this season with the core of their team all over 35 years old, how many people do you think would be picking the Mets to win?

I'll go one step further: If the Mets were headed into this season with a third baseman who has consistently missed a good amount of games in the last four seasons, a pitcher who has missed the last two seasons in full, a 40-year-old pitcher who has had nagging injuries during the spring, and a 42-year-old pitcher last seen giving up seven runs in a third of an inning, how many people do you think would be picking the Mets to win? Certainly not as many as are picking the Braves right now, I'll tell you that.

I think the Braves are a third place team. But put a gun to my head and ask me to predict whether the Braves will break into the top two or the bottom two, then believe it or not I'm guessing lower. Outside of Hudson and Teixeira, the major components to the Braves are old, brittle, or both. And unlike seasons past, Andruw Jones ain't walkin' through that door. (Some might say that these days, Andruw Jones needs margarine to merely fit through the door.)

Braves: 82-80

Part two comin' soon! (Considering the season starts Monday, it would have to come real soon, wouldn't it?)

Never Forget The Ice Cream

This one was one for the annals.

This past trip was so jam packed that I needed more than a day to process everything and put the words down on paper. The three day spring training trip that we just embarked on was truly a Johnny Cash song.

Sunday started with a two-hour drive from the Disney Complex to Vero Beach. How do you know you're leaving Disney? When you see billboards that read "Vasectomy.com: It's Easier Than You Think!" or other gems that advertise an "Lunch Buffet/Adult Cabaret". See, Florida can be fun even outside of Disneyworld!

We got to Dodgertown at about 11AM and immediately pulled over to take pictures by the sign (like the one you see above) on the way in ... all the while thinking our rent-a-car was going to get plowed by somebody on the side of the road. Luckily, the closest thing to a catastrophe occurred when the zipper on my bag ripped apart my finger and caused me to bleed all over my Todd Zeile jersey.

Yes, you heard me, I own a Todd Zeile jersey. But more on that later.

After two days of mingling amongst Braves and Dodgers and Tigers and Indians, it was nice to be surrounded by my own kind, and that included incomparable Mets bloggers such as Matt Cerrone, Zoe Rice, and "The Coop" who I was fortunate to run into just in front of the walkway into Dodgertown, along with Stefi Kaplan later in the game. The four of them were on their own spring training odysseys, and you can read all about their adventures here and here.

Here's the thing about Dodgertown: It's freakin' awesome. Disney and Tigertown both provided unique experiences in terms of watching a ballgame. Disney provided, well ... Disney, along with the opportunity to heckle Larry Jones (yes, that loud voice you heard during the bottom of the fifth with a 1-2 count on "Chipper" was, in fact, yours truly). Tigertown provided the oldest spring training home in the majors, and the opportunity to sit on a hill of grass with about 1,000 other people. Dodgertown didn't fail in providing yet another unique experience in terms of fan enjoyment. For example, how many people can say they were almost run over by a golf cart being driven by Mariano Duncan, with Don Mattingly and Larry Bowa riding shotgun? Not many.

I, am one of those people.

But such is the experience of Dodgertown, where players walk right past you and give you high fives if you ask nicely. And if you go to the practice fields, you never know who you're going to run into. And that brings me to the story of the weekend:

It actually started on Friday, when my buddy was wearing the hat you see to the right, a St. Andrews Old Course hat, while trying to get Tommy "Come Down From The Tree" Lasorda's autograph. Lasorda was in the stands that day, willing to sign autographs but only between innings. At the end of the game, he failed in getting Tommy to sign his ball, but asked Lasorda's handler if he'd be around on Sunday when we got to Vero. The guy basically told him that if he wore that hat on Sunday, he would be recognized and given an autograph.

Fast forward to Sunday on that Vero Beach practice field, where Tommy was about to be driven away by the handler when my friend starts waving his hat yelling "Old Course! Old Course! Old Course!" True to his word, Tommy's handler stops the golf cart, takes my buddy's ball and gets it signed by Lasorda (and afterwards, drives Lasorda away, making everybody who had failed to get an autograph before even more angry that the guy who just shows up in a golf hat gets a signature at their expense.)

But fear not, there were plenty of autographs to be had ... as for one day only, fans got to go on to the field and get autographs from basically every single Dodger on the team (except Jeff Kent, who was nowhere to be found when I got there. Gee, what a surprise! Oh, and Nomar Garciaparra left early too.) I told Andruw Jones that I was happy that he wouldn't be killing the Mets nearly as much from the N.L. West. Everyone else got a laugh out of it, but I couldn't wipe the smirk-like smile off Andruw's face.

Andre Ethier even remembered it was a sinker that he hit off of Ryan Dempster to win a game in Wrigley last September. Weird.

After the scrum, I have to admit that I was too exhausted to make my way to right field to see if any Mets were doing some signing ... and considering that pretty much every big player either stayed in Port St. Lucie or was injured, there weren't a lot of players available to autograph (but one guy who my buddy was able to get was Fernando Martinez, which was pretty cool.)

Then the game started, and it started with a whimper as Martinez, Ruben Gotay, and Angel Pagan played "I got it you take it" on a pop fly which should have ended the inning but instead put two runs on Ollie Perez's spring ERA. But I couldn't be too upset over that, because I'm sure those players all saw what could happen when you pursue a pop fly too hard in spring training ... you get knocked out with a concussion.

I'll say this: I hope that Carlos Delgado's injury isn't serious ... because I could swear I saw Michel Abreu swing at everything thrown to him, including a hot dog wrapper that was thrown across home plate. In fact, when I got home, I threw an empty cup at a garbage can, and I could swear I felt the breeze of Abreu's bat swinging at it. Here's a sampling of Abreu's greatest whiffs from Sunday:



But speaking of hot dog wrappers, Dodgertown provided me with the fulfillment of a lifelong dream: I ate a Dodger Dog. I'm still not sure that it was the authentic Dodger Dog that's sold at Chavez Ravine, but as I told the vendors: If you're not sure, just tell me it is and don't destroy the dream.

And while on line for that dog, a guy who was with ESPN ... no, I don't know who ... gave me props for being the only guy he's ever seen with a Todd Zeile Mets jersey. I don't know if that means I'm special or insane. Probably the latter ... but I got a warm feeling inside much the same.

Update: Lest you thought I was kidding about the Zeile jersey, it looks like the lens of justice caught me for Straight Cash Homey, a website dedicated to finding unsuspecting folk sporting obscure jerseys, or as they put it: "an international ridiculous jersey scavenger hunt". The funny thing is, I have about 10-15 jerseys that would qualify for this website, and always thought that one day I might make this site. Alas, this is the one that gets me on the site. To whoever snapped the shot, great catch. And thanks to the anonymous tipster that found me on the site. I hope the jersey doesn't make my butt look big.

By the way, did I mention the other oddity about Holman Stadium in Vero Beach? Stadiums like Wrigley Field have pillars to obstruct your view. But Holman obstructs your view while going green at the same time: with trees right in the middle of the stands!

There was a guy at the game behind the stands who could have used a tree as took a foul ball to the head ... it hit him with such ferocity that it bounced back towards the stands and rolled under the seat next to me. It was pretty bad, but he wound up getting the ball as a souvenir.

The game ended with three Met runs in the ninth, capped by Pagan's two -out two-run single (captured below). Before the game, I wasn't convinced that there was a roster spot for Pagan. After the game, I started to come around. And now with the various injuries to Ruben Gotay, Ryan Church, Marlon Anderson, Moises Alou (especially Moises Alou), Joel Youngblood, George Theodore, and Amos Otis, Pagan may be as big a lock for a roster spot out of camp as Jose Reyes is.

But Sunday, like the rest of the weekend, really wasn't about who won or lost. It was about drinking beer, throwing down hot dogs, and experiencing baseball in an entirely new way ... not necessarily in that order. It was about getting a tan in February. It was about chatting with major leaguers. It was about acquiring a whole new appreciation for games that don't count in the standings. It was about appreciating the fact that some people go through their whole year living off the money they make for six weeks out of the year. Unfortunately, that money runs out as the Dodgers move their spring operations out of Vero Beach for good as of the 17th. It runs out for the people that served my ice cream in a plastic helmet, imploring me to think of them, root for them to get a new team so they could make a living, and never forget the ice cream.

Not anytime soon, I promise.

Your 2007 N.L. East Preview: Atlanta Braves

They say that teams like the Atlanta Braves don't rebuild, they reload. Well, John Schuerholz had to do a lot of rebuilding for the 2007 season. But they also did some reloading as well.

It all means that it's time to ratchet up the hate machine again.

I'm doing my best to try to suppress these feelings about the Braves being competitive. But that would be as unhealthy as my general eating habits (as I wolf down some salt & vinegar potato chips and a Coke Zero). Let's face it: I can't go around spewing about how it's the bullpen that wins ballgames and then turn around and say that the Braves are going to suck moose appendages. Bob Wickman, Rafael Soriano (great f'n trade Bill Bavasi!), and Mike Gonzalez represent a huge upgrade from how the Braves started 2006. Those three join lefties Oscar Villareal (9-1 in 2006) and Macay McBride (4-1 in 2006) to form a very good unit. The questions lie in former Met Tyler Yates and former Yankee Tanyon Sturtze, but when everybody's favorite school system expert Mike Hampton comes back from injury, Lance Cormier will probably join the 'pen and strengthen it.

The rest of the rotation will feature Tim Hudson (who single handedly ruined my fantasy team last year ,but is having a good spring), Chuck James (who will single handedly ruin my fantasy team this year, but is also having a good spring), Kyle Davies (who battles inconsistency), Mark Redman (who battles being with crappy teams like the Royals), and of course John Smoltz who doesn't want to retire anytime soon. When Hampton comes back (and if Hampton can return to his peak form), the starting pitching is deep and serviceable.

The highlights of the lineup will lie in Andruw Jones and his contract year, Edgar Renteria...who is happy to be out of the American League once and for all, and the newly minted Brian McCann...a .300 hitting lefty catcher who just signed a huge contract at the age of 23. You can put Jeff Francoeur on that list too, but he strikes out an awful lot, and walking seems to be a concept foreign to him (his OBP was a paltry .293 last season). By the way, Francoeur's middle name is Braden. Just thought you should know.

Remember Larry Jones? Sure you do. He battled nagging injuries last season, and appears to be doing the same this spring. If they continue, he'll be relegated to less of a factor than he usually is...although he will get his quota of big hits against the Mets. You can be sure about that. Kelly Johnson is learning a new position at second base, Ryan Langerhans could platoon with Matt Diaz in left, and former Yankee Craig Wilson will platoon at first base with second year player Scott Thorman.

If Andruw Jones fulfills his expectations for a contract year, and if Tim Hudson bounces back, the Braves are going to be serious contenders. For me though, the mediocrities of their starting pitching and the relative lack of firepower in their lineup (along with the uncertainty of whether they can go out and get a big ticket item at the trade deadline with the transference of ownership from Ted Turner to Liberty Media) will keep them from reclaiming the throne they feel is rightfully theirs. But that isn't going to stop those incessant chops and chants from coming out of the deep south. Buy your earplugs, boys and girls.



I'll miss Captain Planet.

Prediction: Second place, 86-76